Troy basketball is headed to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 with a chance to win its first tournament game ever.
Head coach Scott Cross led Troy to its fourth consecutive season with at least 20 wins in the 2024-25 campaign and won a share of the Sun Belt title along with Arkansas State, James Madison and South Alabama. It marked only the second time the Trojans have won the regular-season title since joining the conference, the first coming in 2010.
Troy will be making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 2017, but the program is still seeking its first-ever victory in March Madness. There is a chance this group can accomplish that feat behind a stellar defense — a trademark of the Cross era — and an offense that is rounding into form behind Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
Troy’s late-season surge
The fact that Troy is sitting in this position seemed unlikely in mid-January. The Trojans were just 11-7 overall and 4-3 in conference play, without a single victory over a team in the KenPom top 170.
But then they beat South Alabama by double digits at home on Jan. 25, and they have been playing at a very high level since. Troy is a stellar 12-3 since that date, beating all three of the teams of its conference co-champions during this span.
The Trojans were really good all season long on the defensive end, but they elevated to being a truly elite unit as the season progressed. Per Torvik, Troy holds the following ranks since Jan. 25:
- seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate
- eighth in effective field goal percentage defense
- ninth in 2-point defense
- 34th in opponent turnover rate (i.e. turnovers forced)
Troy held nine of its final 15 opponents to 61 points or fewer, and the Trojans’ defense allowed them to win all three Sun Belt Tournament games by double digits.
It helps to have a player like Conerway leading the charge, too. The 6-3 guard ranks second in Division I for steal rate (5.7), and he grades out as both the best individual defender in the Sun Belt and a top-40 defender nationally, per EvanMiya.
Conerway leading offensive improvement
As good as he is defensively, Conerway has been even better on the offensive end during this run. Troy is putting the ball in his hands more often and simply letting him go to work, and Conerway — who was named MVP of the Sun Belt Tournament — has responded in a big way.
Now, as a whole, Troy is not a very good shooting team. Nevertheless, this team still shoots a good number of 3-pointers, and the Trojans started taking even more since Jan. 25, ranking 36th in 3-point rate over the past six-plus weeks. A major reason for the uptick is Conerway’s ability to break down defenses, get into the paint, force help and create open shooters. Those skills are also what helped him lead the Sun Belt in assist rate this year.
Occasionally, the Trojans will hit a good number of their 3-pointers, like when they hit 10 in their Sun Belt semifinal victory over JMU. However, the simple fact they are willing to shoot a lot forces defenses to respect it, creating more open driving lanes for guys like Conerway, Thomas Dowd and Myles Rigsby.
Troy is good enough defensively to make up for poor shooting nights, too. Putting that together with Conerway’s ability to do everything has been a winning recipe.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Similar efficiency profiles and statistics found via Bart Torvik.
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Troy is a projected No. 14 seed both by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB as well as on the Bracket Matrix. Should that be the case, the Trojans would rate as a slightly above average 14-seed and would be the 12th-strongest of 41 such teams as measured by the Tournament Index.
The TI projects an average of 0.23 wins (play-ins excluded) for Troy given its projected seed and strength, giving it about a one-in-four shot of pulling the first-round upset (depending on draw, of course).