After beating UC Irvine in the Big West title game, UC San Diego is going dancing in its first year of NCAA Tournament eligibility.
Heading into conference tournament week, there was a lot of talk about the potential for a two-bid Big West. This would have required UC Irvine to beat UC San Diego in the title game, followed by faith in the selection committee to recognize a 30-win, top-40 NET team as deserving of an at-large bid.
The Tritons did not leave their NCAA fate to chance, however, knocking off the Anteaters 75-61 in the Big West final. UCSD, which is now 35-7 in the past two seasons of Big West play, is not only one of the most intriguing potential tournament Cinderellas, but the Tritons are also playing their best basketball of the season. They currently hold the nation’s longest active winning streak at 15, and just one of those games was decided by a single-digit margin.
Now, the top-rated mid-major on Evan Miya awaits its spot in the NCAA Tournament. UCSD will likely be an 11- or 12-seed, and this is one of those squads that no 5- or 6-seed wants to see in the first round.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
Ball movement with a purpose
When watching this Tritons team, what sticks out the most is how smart they are on both sides of the ball. They rarely make bad decisions on offense, and they pick their moments defensively to aggressively hunt steals. This dynamic has resulted in ranking seventh in the nation in offensive turnover percentage (13.4) and second in defensive turnover percentage (23.3), per KenPom.
UCSD thrives when it puts the ball in senior point forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones‘ hands and surrounds him with shooters like Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray. Head coach Eric Olen deploys them within an offense that forces teams to pick their poison between collapsing into the paint or defending the 3-point line. Against UC Irvine, this approach forced the Anteaters into a zone, against which Gray scored a career-high 22 points on 6-of-7 shooting from deep.
This scoring efficiency is what makes the ball security of Olen’s team even more dangerous. Not only are the Tritons a top-five team in terms of turnover rate, but they also rank 32nd in the country in effective field goal percentage while taking nearly half of their shots (49.6 percent) from deep. This highly efficient execution leads to plenty of huge runs, including the 10-0 run at the beginning of the second half that allowed UC San Diego to take the lead against UC Irvine.
The defense is undersized — and underrated
While the ball movement and shooting for UC San Diego are impressive, their defense is even more notable. On top of their defensive turnover percentage, the Tritons boast a top-50 effective field goal defense (47.7 eFG%) and a 2-point defense in the top 20 (46.2 2P%), and they are also an above-average defensive rebounding team. This is even more impressive considering no players in the UCSD rotation stand taller than 6-8.
In holding a player like UC Irvine’s 7-1 center Bent Leuchten to just 10 points on 3-of-7 shooting, the Tritons excelled in deploying their long wings to double the post while their guards rotated perfectly on the perimeter. Even when Anteater Justin Hohn looked like he might get hot from long range, the Tritons were not rattled and continued to key on Leuchten on both ends of the floor to great success.
If there is one stat that could put a pause on the Tritons’ Cinderella hype, it is that the defense gives up a lot of 3-point attempts (328th in opponent 3PA rate). On multiple occasions this season, teams have been able to get hot from beyond the arc against UCSD. If the Tritons run into a team like BYU or Illinois in the first round, they may need to hope for some cold shooting from their opponent.
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Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, UC San Diego is a projected No. 12 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Tritons would rate as the second-strongest No. 12 seed of the last 10 seasons (behind only 2019 Oregon) by the Tournament Index. If they move up a line, they would still rank top 10 among No. 11 seeds of the last 10 years.
The TI projects an average of 0.58 wins for UC San Diego given its projected seed and strength.
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