Spearheaded by the duo of John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng, Yale is headed back to the NCAA Tournament for a second-consecutive season and the third time in four years.
Even after losing Danny Wolf to Michigan via the transfer portal, hopes were high for Yale basketball to make a return trip to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs returned two All-Ivy stars in Bez Mbeng and John Poulakidas along with several other rotation pieces from the previous roster. The question was whether someone could step up in the frontcourt.
Nick Townsend emphatically answered the call.
The 6-7 junior forward, who averaged just 6.0 points on 29.6 percent 3-point shooting last season, emerged as a superb inside-out offensive hub from the outset. Townsend reached double figures in his first three games, but that was only a flash of what was to come. From Nov. 20 until now, he has been averaging 16.6 points for the Bulldogs.
Between Mbeng, Poulakidas and Townsend, Yale has plenty of offensive firepower. Those three compiled superb numbers during the Bulldogs’ 16-1 run through the Ivy League:
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Defense must force turnovers and avoid fouling
There are more questions on the defensive end.
The Bulldogs rank only 117th in adjusted defense relative to 59th on offense, per KenPom, largely due to a low turnover rate and a high rate of 3s allowed. They rank 359th in 3-point attempt rate allowed and 172nd in 3-point defense. Despite being the ninth-most accurate 3-point shooting team itself, Yale has been outscored from distance by 5.4 points per game this year.
The man to watch on defense for Yale is obvious: Mbeng, the three-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year, stifles opponents on the perimeter. The Bulldog defense may rank just 253rd in turnover rate this season, but Mbeng is 156th in individual steal rate. His ability to generate mistakes has often correlated with Yale’s results; the Bulldogs went 13-1 during the season when Mbeng recorded at least two steals, but only 9-6 otherwise.
Mbeng rarely sits, and for good reason. The team is 8.2 adjusted points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the floor. It bears noting that he fouled out in four contests this season, though. Yale lost all four of those games, but the team was 21-3 when he avoided disqualification. Over Yale’s last five games, Mbeng has averaged 38.8 minutes.
Inside, Samson Aletan ranks 18th in the country in block rate. The Bulldogs sacrifice some offensively with Aletan compared to other lineups. However, they allow just 41.6 percent shooting on 2s when he mans the paint as opposed to 51.6 percent when he sits. Yale also sends the opposition to the foul line less with Aletan on the court (.228 FTR allowed vs. .351). For the year, the Bulldogs are 19-1 when keeping their opponent’s free-throw rate under .310.
Don’t let John Poulakidas find the left wing
John Poulakidas averaged 13.4 points and earned All-Ivy Second Team honors last season before proving his stardom with a 28-outburst in Yale’s upset win over Auburn in the NCAA Tournament. Now a senior and household name, the sharpshooting lefty has taken his game to another level.
While it was Mbeng that won the Ivy’s top individual honors, Poulakidas is his primary receiver and the Bulldogs’ go-to offensive threat. He enters the Big Dance averaging 19.0 points on impressive shooting splits of .449/.402/.885. Poulakidas also netted 25 points — including 23 in the second half — in Yale’s championship win over Cornell, marking his third 25-point performance in the past six games.
Poulakidas can fill it up from anywhere on the floor, but all scorers have their hotspots. For the Yale star, it is the left wing 3-pointer:
Poulakidas shot 36-for-76 (.474) on left wing 3s during the season, accounting for nearly half of his makes for the season. Include all shots outside the paint and top-of-the-key 3s, and he is shooting 49.4 percent from the left side of the floor compared to 36.0 percent from the right.
His attempt rates indicate how difficult it is to force him away from his spots, though. A full 71.5 percent of his non-paint shots either come from the left side or top-of-the-key 3s, and he is a tough shot-maker with the size to shoot over defenders.
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Tournament Index evaluation
Yale received the No. 13 seed that was projected by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs rate as the seventh-strongest No. 13 seed of the last 10 seasons (40 total No. 13 seeds) by the Tournament Index. The No. 13 seeds with TI ratings of 59.9 or better over the last 10 years have combined for seven NCAA Tournament wins, while the 13-seeds with lower TI ratings have combined for only two. Yale rates at 61.1.
The TI projects an average of 0.34 wins for Yale given their projected seed and strength.
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