Tournament Index: Cinderella Watch

Cinderella Watch

At Heat Check CBB, we define a “Cinderella” as a team seeded 11th or worse that reaches at least the Sweet 16.

Since 2013, exactly 19 teams have accomplished the feat. At least one team seeded 11th or worse has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last 14 NCAA Tournaments.

However, is a seed number enough to suggest the term “Cinderella?”

After all, of the last 19 teams to meet the criteria, 11 were either high-major teams or Gonzaga. Cinderella stories like Saint Peter’s, Oral Roberts, Florida Gulf Coast and George Mason only come around every so often.

Identifying soft spots in the bracket — those unsuspecting areas from which a Cinderella may emerge — is not only an exciting exercise, but also one that could be hugely beneficial in your March Madness pool.

As noted above, 19 of 240 teams seeded 11th or worse have advanced to the Sweet 16 or further since 2013, good for 7.9 percent. Our model handpicked 34 potential Cinderellas in that span, and nine of them accomplished the Sweet 16 feat — or 26.5 percent. Sixteen of the 34 pulled off a first-round upset (47.1 percent) while the tournament average during this same span was 23.3 percent.

To be chosen for the “Cinderella Watch,” a team’s Sweet 16 probability must be at least one standard deviation above what an average team at that seed line would be expected to have.

Tournament Index Cinderella Watch history

Orange highlight denotes team exceeded performance against seed expectation.

• 2024
  • 15-South Dakota State (1st Round)
• 2023
  • 13-Furman (2nd Round)
  • 15-Princeton (Sweet 16)
  • 15-Vermont (1st Round)
  • 13-Kent State (1st Round)
  • 15-Colgate (1st Round)
• 2022
  • 11-Michigan (Sweet 16)
  • 13-South Dakota State (1st Round)
  • 13-Vermont (1st Round)
  • 14-Colgate (1st Round)
• 2021
  • none
• 2019
  • 13-UC Irvine (2nd Round)
  • 12-Oregon (Sweet 16)
  • 12-Murray State (2nd Round)
• 2018
  • 16-Penn (1st Round)
  • 12-New Mexico State (1st Round)
• 2017
  • 12-Middle Tennessee (2nd Round)
  • 11-Xavier (Elite Eight)
• 2016
  • 15-Weber State (1st Round)
  • 15-Cal State Bakersfield (1st Round)
  • 14-SFA (2nd Round)
  • 11-Gonzaga (Sweet 16)
  • 11-Wichita State (2nd Round)
• 2015
  • 14-Georgia State (2nd Round)
  • 13-Valparaiso (1st Round)
  • 11-Texas (1st Round)
• 2014
  • 15-American (1st Round)
  • 14-NC Central (1st Round)
  • 13-New Mexico State (1st Round)
  • 11-Tennessee (Sweet 16)
• 2013
  • 15-Pacific (1st Round)
  • 15-FGCU (Sweet 16)
  • 14-Davidson (1st Round)
  • 13-New Mexico State (1st Round)
  • 13-La Salle (Sweet 16)
  • 12-Oregon (Sweet 16)