Tournament Index: Dark Horses

Dark Horses

Teams eligible for the “Dark Horse” tag are any seeds that fall between the 5-11 seed lines. Since 2013, 50 teams have been tabbed “Dark Horses” by Tournament Index out of a possible 280 teams, which equates to approximately exactly five “Dark Horses” per tournament.

Using wins expectation by seed, the 50 teams were projected to win a combined 42.7 tournament games. Instead, the “Dark Horse” teams won a combined 66 tournament games, significantly exceeding expectations. Some previous “Dark Horse” selections include 7-seed UConn and 8-seed Kentucky that met in the 2014 championship, 7-seed Michigan State that reached the 2015 Final Four and 2021 USC and 2023 Creighton that advanced to the Elite Eight as a 6-seed.

To be chosen as a “Dark Horse,” a team’s Elite Eight probability must be at least one standard deviation above what an average team at that seed line would be expected to have.

Tournament Index Dark Horse history

Orange highlight denotes team exceeded performance against seed expectation.

• 2024
  • 9-Michigan State (2nd Round)
  • 5-Gonzaga (Sweet 16)
  • 10-Colorado (Sweet 16)
• 2023
  • 5-Duke (2nd Round)
  • 6-Creighton (Elite Eight)
  • 6-Kentucky (2nd Round)
  • 8-Arkansas (Sweet 16)
  • 9-Auburn (2nd Round)
  • 10-Utah State (1st Round)
  • 10-USC (1st Round)
• 2022
  • 5-Houston (Elite Eight)
  • 5-Iowa (1st Round)
  • 9-Memphis (2nd Round)
  • 11-Michigan (Sweet 16)
• 2021
  • 5-Villanova (Sweet 16)
  • 5-Tennessee (1st Round)
  • 6-USC (Elite Eight)
  • 6-Texas Tech (2nd Round)
  • 9-Wisconsin (2nd Round)
• 2019
  • none
• 2018
  • 5-Kentucky (Sweet 16)
  • 10-Butler (2nd Round)
• 2017
  • 5-Virginia (2nd Round)
  • 6-SMU (1st Round)
  • 7-Saint Mary’s (2nd Round)
  • 8-Wisconsin (Sweet 16)
  • 10-Wichita State (2nd Round)
• 2016
  • 5-Maryland (Sweet 16)
  • 5-Purdue (1st Round)
  • 6-Notre Dame (Elite Eight)
  • 6-Arizona (1st Round)
  • 7-Wisconsin (Sweet 16)
  • 9-Cincinnati (1st Round)
  • 11-Gonzaga (Sweet 16)
  • 11-Wichita State (2nd Round)
• 2015
  • 5-Utah (Sweet 16)
  • 7-Michigan State (Final Four)
  • 7-Wichita State (Sweet 16)
  • 10-Ohio State (2nd Round)
  • 11-Texas (1st Round)
• 2014
  • 6-North Carolina (2nd Round)
  • 6-Ohio State (1st Round)
  • 7-UConn (National Champion)
  • 8-Kentucky (National Runner-Up)
  • 9-Pittsburgh (2nd Round)
  • 9-Oklahoma State (1st Round)
  • 11-Tennessee (Sweet 16)
• 2013
  • 5-Wisconsin (1st Round)
  • 6-Arizona (Sweet 16)
  • 8-North Carolina (2nd Round)
  • 8-Pittsburgh (1st Round)
  • 8-NC State (1st Round)
  • 9-Missouri (1st Round)
  • 10-Colorado (1st Round)