Tournament Index: March Madness 2025 predictions, Cinderella projections
Welcome to Tournament Index — the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.
Heat Check CBB’s Tournament Index is the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.
The purpose: We project how March Madness teams will perform based on their own strengths as well as their bracket placement, identifying under-seeded and over-seeded teams and the difficulty of their tournament path.
Tournament Index: 2024-25 Ratings
Ratings are updated every morning.Projected seeds are courtesy of BracketMatrix.com. Only teams that appear in the most recent BracketMatrix update are included in tournament advancement probabilities.
Clicking the + icon will display tournament advancement probabilities by round as well as the team's most similar historical March Madness team, determined by similarity scores.
| RANK | TEAM | CONF | RATING | SEED | AVG. WINS | NET | RECORD | First Round | Second Round | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | Champ | Most Similar Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | ACC | 94.8 | 1 | 3.34 | 1 | 31-3 | 96.2% | 78.0% | 62.6% | 45.8% | 31.3% | 20.2% | 2018 Duke (2-seed, E8) |
| 2 | Auburn | SEC | 91.2 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 28-5 | 95.3% | 73.4% | 55.8% | 38.0% | 23.9% | 14.1% | 2015 Villanova (1-seed, R32) |
| 3 | Houston | Big 12 | 89.4 | 1 | 2.85 | 3 | 30-4 | 94.7% | 70.9% | 52.4% | 34.3% | 20.6% | 11.6% | 2014 Louisville (4-seed, S16) |
| 4 | Tennessee | SEC | 89.2 | 2 | 2.62 | 5 | 27-6 | 92.0% | 69.4% | 48.4% | 27.0% | 16.1% | 9.0% | 2014 Florida (1-seed, F4) |
| 5 | Alabama | SEC | 88.5 | 2 | 2.57 | 6 | 25-8 | 91.7% | 68.5% | 47.1% | 25.8% | 15.2% | 8.3% | 2015 Wisconsin (1-seed, RUNNER-UP) |
| 6 | Florida | SEC | 88.2 | 1 | 2.74 | 4 | 29-4 | 94.3% | 69.2% | 50.1% | 32.0% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 2013 Gonzaga (1-seed, R32) |
| 7 | Arizona | Big 12 | 83.4 | 4 | 1.94 | 12 | 22-12 | 83.6% | 60.2% | 25.5% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2018 North Carolina (2-seed, R32) |
| 8 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 83.2 | 3 | 2.08 | 7 | 25-8 | 86.7% | 59.8% | 34.2% | 15.7% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 2022 Iowa (5-seed, R64) |
| 9 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 83.0 | 3 | 2.06 | 9 | 24-9 | 86.5% | 59.4% | 33.7% | 15.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2016 Virginia (1-seed, E8) |
| 10 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 82.7 | 2 | 2.09 | 11 | 27-6 | 88.1% | 58.7% | 35.2% | 15.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 2021 USC (6-seed, E8) |
| 11 | UConn | Big East | 80.4 | 8 | 1.11 | 32 | 23-10 | 64.7% | 21.9% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 2013 NC State (8-seed, R64) |
| 12 | Gonzaga | WCC | 80.3 | 7 | 1.37 | 8 | 25-8 | 71.6% | 33.8% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2016 Arizona (6-seed, R64) |
| 13 | Illinois | Big Ten | 80.1 | 6 | 1.39 | 17 | 21-12 | 70.0% | 37.2% | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2022 Iowa (5-seed, R64) |
| 14 | Kentucky | SEC | 79.9 | 3 | 1.84 | 15 | 22-11 | 84.0% | 53.9% | 27.9% | 11.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 2014 Michigan (2-seed, E8) |
| 15 | Texas A&M | SEC | 79.2 | 4 | 1.66 | 18 | 22-10 | 79.5% | 52.6% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 2016 West Virginia (3-seed, R64) |
| 16 | Kansas | Big 12 | 79.2 | 7 | 1.30 | 20 | 21-12 | 70.1% | 31.8% | 17.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2022 Villanova (2-seed, F4) |
| 17 | Baylor | Big 12 | 78.3 | 9 | 0.91 | 30 | 19-14 | 56.5% | 17.4% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2013 NC State (8-seed, R64) |
| 18 | Maryland | Big Ten | 77.9 | 4 | 1.57 | 10 | 25-8 | 78.0% | 49.9% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2021 USC (6-seed, E8) |
| 19 | Purdue | Big Ten | 77.8 | 5 | 1.36 | 19 | 22-11 | 72.3% | 40.4% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 2014 Oregon (7-seed, R32) |
| 20 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 77.5 | 3 | 1.68 | 14 | 26-8 | 81.6% | 49.2% | 23.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 2016 Miami (3-seed, S16) |
| 21 | Marquette | Big East | 77.2 | 8 | 0.94 | 26 | 23-10 | 59.8% | 17.5% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2019 Mississippi State (5-seed, R64) |
| 22 | North Carolina | ACC | 76.7 | 11 | 0.98 | 36 | 22-13 | 54.2% | 25.8% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2019 Villanova (6-seed, R32) |
| 23 | St. John's | Big East | 76.5 | 2 | 1.67 | 13 | 30-4 | 83.1% | 47.4% | 23.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 2014 Tennessee (11-seed, S16) |
| 24 | Creighton | Big East | 75.8 | 8 | 0.87 | 38 | 24-10 | 57.6% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 2016 Utah (3-seed, R32) |
| 25 | BYU | Big 12 | 74.7 | 6 | 1.07 | 24 | 24-9 | 61.9% | 27.4% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 2021 LSU (8-seed, R32) |
| 26 | Saint Mary's | WCC | 73.4 | 7 | 0.98 | 21 | 28-5 | 61.4% | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2014 Pittsburgh (9-seed, R32) |
| 27 | Michigan | Big Ten | 73.2 | 4 | 1.31 | 25 | 24-9 | 72.3% | 41.0% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2014 Iowa State (3-seed, S16) |
| 28 | Clemson | ACC | 73.0 | 5 | 1.10 | 22 | 27-6 | 65.4% | 31.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 2016 Iowa (7-seed, R32) |
| 29 | Missouri | SEC | 72.7 | 7 | 0.94 | 16 | 22-11 | 60.3% | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 2013 Iowa State (10-seed, R32) |
| 30 | VCU | Atlantic 10 | 72.2 | 11 | 0.76 | 31 | 27-6 | 46.7% | 18.7% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2013 Saint Mary's (11-seed, R64) |
| 31 | Georgia | SEC | 71.9 | 9 | 0.64 | 33 | 20-12 | 45.8% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2016 Iowa (7-seed, R32) |
| 32 | Oregon | Big Ten | 71.8 | 5 | 1.04 | 29 | 24-9 | 63.6% | 29.2% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2016 Texas (6-seed, R64) |
| 33 | Arkansas | SEC | 71.7 | 10 | 0.65 | 40 | 20-13 | 42.3% | 14.2% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2019 Oregon (12-seed, S16) |
| 34 | Texas | SEC | 71.0 | 11 | 0.71 | 39 | 19-15 | 44.8% | 17.1% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2021 LSU (8-seed, R32) |
| 35 | UCLA | Big Ten | 70.9 | 6 | 0.88 | 27 | 22-10 | 55.7% | 21.2% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2018 Seton Hall (8-seed, R32) |
| 36 | Louisville | ACC | 70.7 | 6 | 0.87 | 23 | 27-7 | 55.5% | 21.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2019 Saint Mary's (11-seed, R64) |
| 37 | Mississippi State | SEC | 69.0 | 9 | 0.54 | 34 | 21-12 | 41.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2016 Pittsburgh (10-seed, R64) |
| 38 | Ole Miss | SEC | 68.5 | 5 | 0.89 | 28 | 22-11 | 58.4% | 23.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2013 La Salle (13-seed, S16) |
| 39 | UC San Diego | Big West | 67.7 | 12 | 0.62 | 35 | 30-4 | 41.5% | 16.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2017 Vermont (13-seed, R64) |
| 40 | Indiana | Big Ten | 67.6 | 11 | 0.58 | 54 | 19-13 | 39.2% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2021 UCLA (11-seed, F4) |
| 41 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 67.2 | 12 | 0.61 | 47 | 25-9 | 40.8% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2018 Creighton (8-seed, R64) |
| 42 | Oklahoma | SEC | 67.0 | 10 | 0.49 | 43 | 20-13 | 34.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2016 Michigan (11-seed, R64) |
| 43 | SMU | ACC | 66.8 | 46 | 23-10 | 2015 SFA (12-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 44 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 66.6 | 11 | 0.54 | 41 | 17-15 | 37.7% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2017 Notre Dame (5-seed, R32) |
| 45 | San Diego State | Mountain West | 66.0 | 11 | 0.52 | 52 | 21-9 | 36.8% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2015 Georgia (10-seed, R64) |
| 46 | New Mexico | Mountain West | 65.7 | 9 | 0.45 | 42 | 26-7 | 36.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2016 VCU (10-seed, R32) |
| 47 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 64.9 | 49 | 18-15 | 2017 Rhode Island (11-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 48 | Xavier | Big East | 64.5 | 11 | 0.48 | 45 | 21-11 | 34.5% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 Kansas State (9-seed, E8) |
| 49 | Utah State | Mountain West | 64.5 | 10 | 0.41 | 37 | 26-7 | 31.2% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 Indiana (10-seed, R64) |
| 50 | Boise State | Mountain West | 64.2 | 11 | 0.47 | 44 | 24-10 | 34.1% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2014 Dayton (11-seed, E8) |
| 51 | Memphis | The American | 64.2 | 8 | 0.47 | 50 | 28-5 | 38.5% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2016 SFA (14-seed, R32) |
| 52 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 64.2 | 53 | 17-16 | 2014 Providence (11-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 53 | McNeese | Southland | 63.8 | 12 | 0.50 | 58 | 27-6 | 35.5% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 SFA (12-seed, R64) |
| 54 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 63.2 | 11 | 0.44 | 48 | 20-12 | 32.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 NC State (9-seed, R64) |
| 55 | Santa Clara | WCC | 63.2 | 57 | 20-12 | 2014 North Dakota State (12-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 56 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 62.6 | 61 | 17-15 | 2013 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 57 | Drake | MVC | 62.5 | 11 | 0.42 | 56 | 30-3 | 31.5% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 Buffalo (12-seed, R64) |
| 58 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 62.3 | 10 | 0.36 | 51 | 19-13 | 28.2% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2019 Oklahoma (9-seed, R32) |
| 59 | Liberty | CUSA | 61.9 | 12 | 0.44 | 60 | 28-6 | 32.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 Loyola Chicago (11-seed, F4) |
| 60 | Villanova | Big East | 61.8 | 55 | 19-14 | 2015 Indiana (10-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 61 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 61.6 | 77 | 15-17 | 2016 Providence (9-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 62 | Saint Joseph's | Atlantic 10 | 61.3 | 76 | 22-12 | 2015 Georgia State (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 63 | Yale | Ivy League | 61.1 | 13 | 0.34 | 72 | 21-7 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 Buffalo (13-seed, R32) |
| 64 | North Texas | The American | 60.8 | 65 | 24-8 | 2015 New Mexico State (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 65 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 60.6 | 59 | 17-14 | 2013 La Salle (13-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 66 | UC Irvine | Big West | 60.4 | 12 | 0.41 | 62 | 28-6 | 30.5% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 New Mexico State (12-seed, R32) |
| 67 | San Francisco | WCC | 60.1 | 64 | 24-9 | 2022 Providence (4-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 68 | High Point | Big South | 60.0 | 13 | 0.32 | 82 | 29-5 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Davidson (10-seed, R32) |
| 69 | Wake Forest | ACC | 59.9 | 69 | 21-11 | 2015 St. John's (9-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 70 | George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 59.7 | 12 | 0.39 | 68 | 26-7 | 29.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 New Mexico State (12-seed, R32) |
| 71 | Penn State | Big Ten | 59.7 | 66 | 16-15 | 2022 Miami (10-seed, E8) | ||||||||
| 72 | South Carolina | SEC | 59.7 | 87 | 12-20 | 2016 Oregon State (7-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 73 | Georgetown | Big East | 59.5 | 88 | 17-15 | 2019 Arizona State (11-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 74 | Utah | Big 12 | 59.3 | 73 | 16-16 | 2014 Dayton (11-seed, E8) | ||||||||
| 75 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 59.2 | 75 | 16-17 | 2013 La Salle (13-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 76 | Stanford | ACC | 58.8 | 81 | 20-13 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 77 | Arizona State | Big 12 | 58.6 | 74 | 13-19 | 2021 Georgia Tech (9-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 78 | USC | Big Ten | 58.6 | 70 | 16-17 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 79 | Iowa | Big Ten | 58.5 | 63 | 17-16 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 80 | UCF | Big 12 | 58.4 | 71 | 17-16 | 2013 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 81 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 58.2 | 94 | 24-10 | 2017 New Mexico State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 82 | Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 58.2 | 67 | 22-10 | 2021 Syracuse (11-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 83 | Lipscomb | ASUN | 57.9 | 14 | 0.24 | 84 | 25-9 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Georgia State (15-seed, R64) |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 57.6 | 109 | 17-16 | 2019 Arizona State (11-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 85 | Akron | MAC | 57.4 | 13 | 0.27 | 91 | 28-6 | 19.7% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Buffalo (13-seed, R32) |
| 86 | Troy | Sun Belt | 57.4 | 14 | 0.23 | 99 | 23-10 | 17.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Montana (14-seed, R64) |
| 87 | Oregon State | WCC | 57.3 | 85 | 20-12 | 2013 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 88 | TCU | Big 12 | 57.3 | 78 | 16-16 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 89 | Grand Canyon | WAC | 57.3 | 13 | 0.26 | 92 | 26-7 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) |
| 90 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 57.2 | 95 | 15-17 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 91 | Butler | Big East | 56.9 | 83 | 14-19 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 92 | Bradley | MVC | 56.8 | 80 | 26-8 | 2022 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 93 | Nevada | Mountain West | 56.8 | 79 | 17-16 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 94 | LSU | SEC | 56.2 | 89 | 14-18 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 95 | Florida State | ACC | 56.1 | 90 | 17-15 | 2013 La Salle (13-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 96 | Providence | Big East | 55.8 | 100 | 12-20 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 97 | Colorado | Big 12 | 55.7 | 86 | 14-20 | 2022 Richmond (12-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 98 | UAB | The American | 55.6 | 104 | 22-11 | 2013 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 99 | UNCW | CAA | 55.2 | 14 | 0.20 | 102 | 27-7 | 15.3% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64) |
| 100 | Syracuse | ACC | 55.2 | 133 | 14-19 | 2013 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 101 | Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 55.1 | 101 | 19-14 | 2013 Harvard (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 102 | North Alabama | ASUN | 55.1 | 113 | 24-10 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 103 | FAU | The American | 54.9 | 111 | 18-15 | 2015 Eastern Washington (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 104 | Notre Dame | ACC | 54.8 | 103 | 15-18 | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 105 | Washington | Big Ten | 54.8 | 117 | 13-18 | 2013 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 106 | UNLV | Mountain West | 54.8 | 98 | 18-15 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 107 | CSUN | Big West | 54.7 | 105 | 22-10 | 2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 108 | Wofford | SoCon | 54.6 | 15 | 0.16 | 131 | 19-15 | 12.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2013 Iona (15-seed, R64) |
| 109 | California | ACC | 54.6 | 125 | 14-19 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 110 | Loyola Chicago | Atlantic 10 | 54.5 | 107 | 22-11 | 2018 Bucknell (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 111 | Utah Valley | WAC | 54.4 | 108 | 25-8 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 112 | UNI | MVC | 54.2 | 93 | 20-12 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 113 | Samford | SoCon | 54.0 | 116 | 22-10 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 114 | Kent State | MAC | 53.9 | 128 | 22-11 | 2015 Coastal Carolina (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 115 | George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 53.9 | 124 | 21-12 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 116 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 53.9 | 96 | 15-17 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 117 | Chattanooga | SoCon | 53.8 | 115 | 24-9 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 118 | St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 53.8 | 97 | 22-11 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 119 | Washington State | WCC | 53.7 | 112 | 19-14 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 120 | New Mexico State | CUSA | 53.6 | 144 | 17-15 | 2015 UAB (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 121 | Bryant | America East | 53.6 | 15 | 0.14 | 141 | 23-11 | 11.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Coastal Carolina (16-seed, R64) |
| 122 | Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 53.6 | 106 | 22-11 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 123 | Virginia | ACC | 53.5 | 110 | 15-17 | 2019 Georgia State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 124 | ETSU | SoCon | 53.5 | 148 | 19-13 | 2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 125 | South Dakota State | Summit League | 53.4 | 130 | 20-12 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 126 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 53.4 | 126 | 20-12 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 127 | Milwaukee | Horizon | 53.4 | 135 | 21-11 | 2017 Kent State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 128 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 53.3 | 123 | 21-11 | 2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 129 | NC State | ACC | 53.3 | 132 | 12-19 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 130 | Jacksonville State | CUSA | 53.2 | 122 | 22-12 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 131 | Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 53.1 | 114 | 25-9 | 2019 Colgate (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 132 | UNCG | SoCon | 53.1 | 138 | 20-12 | 2015 Coastal Carolina (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 133 | Cornell | Ivy League | 53.1 | 119 | 18-10 | 2014 Weber State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 134 | Wichita State | The American | 53.0 | 134 | 19-14 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 135 | North Dakota State | Summit League | 52.9 | 136 | 21-11 | 2015 Lafayette (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 136 | Furman | SoCon | 52.8 | 127 | 25-9 | 2019 Colgate (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 137 | Towson | CAA | 52.7 | 151 | 22-11 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 138 | Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 52.7 | 149 | 13-19 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 139 | Robert Morris | Horizon | 52.6 | 15 | 0.13 | 139 | 26-8 | 10.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64) |
| 140 | St. Thomas | Summit League | 52.3 | 118 | 24-10 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 141 | UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 52.2 | 140 | 21-13 | 2015 Belmont (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 142 | Kennesaw State | CUSA | 52.1 | 137 | 19-14 | 2013 Pacific (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 143 | DePaul | Big East | 52.0 | 120 | 14-19 | 2018 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 144 | UC Riverside | Big West | 52.0 | 142 | 21-12 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 145 | Tulane | The American | 51.8 | 145 | 19-14 | 2019 Colgate (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 146 | Belmont | MVC | 51.5 | 129 | 22-11 | 2014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 147 | Lamar | Southland | 51.4 | 169 | 20-13 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 148 | A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 51.4 | 165 | 20-14 | 2016 Florida Gulf Coast (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 149 | Seattle U | WAC | 51.3 | 155 | 14-18 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 150 | Marshall | Sun Belt | 51.3 | 177 | 20-13 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 151 | Cleveland State | Horizon | 51.2 | 174 | 21-12 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 152 | Murray State | MVC | 51.2 | 146 | 16-17 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 153 | Radford | Big South | 51.2 | 161 | 20-13 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 154 | East Carolina | The American | 51.2 | 176 | 19-14 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 155 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 51.1 | 158 | 20-12 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 156 | Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 51.0 | 152 | 18-13 | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 157 | California Baptist | WAC | 51.0 | 172 | 17-15 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 158 | Drexel | CAA | 51.0 | 185 | 18-15 | 2016 Florida Gulf Coast (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 159 | Miami (OH) | MAC | 50.9 | 147 | 25-9 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 160 | FGCU | ASUN | 50.8 | 173 | 18-14 | 2015 Eastern Washington (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 161 | App State | Sun Belt | 50.8 | 170 | 17-14 | 2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 162 | Temple | The American | 50.8 | 164 | 17-15 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 163 | Jacksonville | ASUN | 50.8 | 182 | 19-13 | 2014 Wofford (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 164 | Nicholls | Southland | 50.7 | 171 | 20-13 | 2018 Radford (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 165 | Winthrop | Big South | 50.7 | 163 | 23-11 | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 166 | Charleston | CAA | 50.6 | 150 | 24-9 | 2021 Drexel (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 167 | Oakland | Horizon | 50.4 | 193 | 16-18 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 168 | Illinois State | MVC | 50.3 | 121 | 19-14 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 169 | Norfolk State | MEAC | 50.3 | 16 | 0.08 | 183 | 24-10 | 6.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) |
| 170 | Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 50.2 | 153 | 17-16 | 2018 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 171 | Eastern Kentucky | ASUN | 50.2 | 187 | 18-14 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 172 | Montana | Big Sky | 50.1 | 14 | 0.14 | 143 | 25-9 | 11.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) |
| 173 | LMU | WCC | 50.0 | 162 | 17-15 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 174 | Miami | ACC | 50.0 | 225 | 7-24 | 2013 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 175 | Omaha | Summit League | 49.9 | 15 | 0.11 | 160 | 22-12 | 9.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) |
| 176 | South Carolina State | MEAC | 49.9 | 196 | 20-13 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 177 | Elon | CAA | 49.9 | 184 | 17-15 | 2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 178 | Rice | The American | 49.8 | 204 | 13-19 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 179 | Central Connecticut | NEC | 49.8 | 168 | 25-7 | 2022 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 180 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 49.8 | 167 | 13-19 | 2022 Wright State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 181 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 49.8 | 198 | 16-16 | 2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 182 | Western Kentucky | CUSA | 49.7 | 159 | 17-15 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 183 | UMass | Atlantic 10 | 49.7 | 221 | 12-20 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 184 | Idaho State | Big Sky | 49.4 | 194 | 15-15 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 185 | Portland State | Big Sky | 49.3 | 200 | 19-13 | 2014 Coastal Carolina (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 186 | UTEP | CUSA | 49.3 | 157 | 18-15 | 2014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 187 | UIC | MVC | 49.2 | 154 | 17-14 | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 188 | Purdue Fort Wayne | Horizon | 49.2 | 156 | 19-13 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 189 | Princeton | Ivy League | 49.0 | 166 | 19-11 | 2022 Wright State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 190 | Sam Houston | CUSA | 49.0 | 178 | 13-19 | 2017 South Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 191 | San Jose State | Mountain West | 48.9 | 175 | 15-19 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 192 | Montana State | Big Sky | 48.9 | 186 | 15-18 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 193 | Quinnipiac | MAAC | 48.9 | 191 | 20-13 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 194 | Hampton | CAA | 48.9 | 212 | 17-16 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 195 | Boston College | ACC | 48.7 | 202 | 12-19 | 2022 Wright State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 196 | Merrimack | MAAC | 48.6 | 181 | 18-15 | 2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 197 | UNC Asheville | Big South | 48.6 | 192 | 21-11 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 198 | South Florida | The American | 48.5 | 189 | 13-19 | 2022 Wright State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 199 | Central Michigan | MAC | 48.5 | 219 | 14-17 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 200 | SIUE | OVC | 48.4 | 16 | 0.07 | 216 | 22-11 | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) |
| 201 | Brown | Ivy League | 48.4 | 215 | 14-13 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 202 | Seton Hall | Big East | 48.4 | 211 | 7-25 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 203 | Youngstown State | Horizon | 48.3 | 190 | 21-13 | 2013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 204 | Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 48.3 | 208 | 18-14 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 205 | SIU | MVC | 48.2 | 195 | 14-19 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 206 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 48.2 | 197 | 12-20 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 207 | Northeastern | CAA | 48.1 | 207 | 17-15 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 208 | SEMO | OVC | 48.1 | 188 | 21-12 | 2017 Jacksonville State (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 209 | La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 48.1 | 214 | 14-19 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 210 | Southern | SWAC | 48.1 | 224 | 20-12 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 211 | Longwood | Big South | 48.0 | 210 | 18-14 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 212 | Queens | ASUN | 48.0 | 199 | 19-14 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 213 | Hofstra | CAA | 47.8 | 218 | 15-18 | 2017 North Dakota (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 214 | Ohio | MAC | 47.7 | 179 | 16-16 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 215 | UTSA | The American | 47.7 | 201 | 12-19 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 216 | Cal Poly | Big West | 47.6 | 180 | 16-19 | 2019 FDU (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 217 | UT Arlington | WAC | 47.6 | 231 | 13-18 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 218 | Iona | MAAC | 47.5 | 252 | 17-17 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 219 | Little Rock | OVC | 47.4 | 234 | 19-14 | 2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 220 | CSU Bakersfield | Big West | 47.3 | 244 | 14-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 221 | Kansas City | Summit League | 47.3 | 241 | 13-20 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 222 | South Dakota | Summit League | 47.3 | 233 | 19-14 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 223 | Valparaiso | MVC | 47.2 | 206 | 15-19 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 224 | Dartmouth | Ivy League | 47.2 | 209 | 14-14 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 225 | Northern Kentucky | Horizon | 47.2 | 229 | 17-16 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 226 | Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 47.2 | 248 | 18-15 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 227 | Bucknell | Patriot | 47.1 | 213 | 18-15 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 228 | Pepperdine | WCC | 47.1 | 227 | 13-22 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 229 | Manhattan | MAAC | 47.1 | 243 | 17-13 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 230 | Abilene Christian | WAC | 47.1 | 228 | 16-16 | 2021 Appalachian St. (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 231 | Wright State | Horizon | 47.1 | 220 | 15-18 | 2015 Lafayette (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 232 | UIW | Southland | 47.0 | 249 | 17-16 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 233 | Hawaii | Big West | 47.0 | 223 | 15-16 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 234 | Toledo | MAC | 46.9 | 238 | 18-15 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 235 | Indiana State | MVC | 46.9 | 205 | 14-18 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 236 | Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 46.8 | 239 | 12-21 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 237 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 46.8 | 255 | 17-16 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 238 | Maine | America East | 46.8 | 203 | 20-14 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 239 | Presbyterian | Big South | 46.7 | 240 | 14-18 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 240 | Northwestern State | Southland | 46.7 | 230 | 16-16 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 241 | Vermont | America East | 46.3 | 232 | 21-12 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 242 | Tennessee State | OVC | 46.3 | 250 | 17-16 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 243 | Mount St. Mary's | MAAC | 46.2 | 16 | 0.06 | 236 | 22-12 | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) |
| 244 | Campbell | CAA | 46.2 | 222 | 15-17 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 245 | North Dakota | Summit League | 46.1 | 275 | 12-21 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 246 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 46.1 | 265 | 14-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 247 | UMass Lowell | America East | 46.1 | 242 | 17-15 | 2018 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 248 | ODU | Sun Belt | 46.1 | 293 | 15-20 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 249 | UAlbany | America East | 46.0 | 263 | 17-16 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 250 | Missouri State | MVC | 45.9 | 245 | 9-23 | 2022 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 251 | Marist | MAAC | 45.9 | 246 | 20-10 | 2021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 252 | Delaware | CAA | 45.8 | 235 | 16-20 | 2019 Gardner Webb (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 253 | UTRGV | Southland | 45.8 | 251 | 16-15 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 254 | William & Mary | CAA | 45.7 | 217 | 17-15 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 255 | UC Davis | Big West | 45.7 | 237 | 15-17 | 2021 Appalachian St. (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 256 | American | Patriot | 45.5 | 16 | 0.05 | 226 | 22-12 | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) |
| 257 | Mercer | SoCon | 45.5 | 261 | 14-19 | 2015 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 258 | Alabama State | SWAC | 45.4 | 16 | 0.05 | 274 | 19-15 | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) |
| 259 | Navy | Patriot | 45.4 | 270 | 15-19 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 260 | FIU | CUSA | 45.4 | 260 | 10-23 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 261 | Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 45.4 | 253 | 10-22 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 262 | Jackson State | SWAC | 45.3 | 264 | 16-18 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 263 | Western Michigan | MAC | 45.3 | 279 | 12-20 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 264 | Saint Peter's | MAAC | 45.3 | 286 | 12-16 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 265 | Sacred Heart | MAAC | 45.2 | 254 | 15-18 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 266 | Gardner-Webb | Big South | 45.2 | 266 | 11-20 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 267 | Monmouth | CAA | 45.1 | 258 | 13-20 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 268 | SFA | Southland | 45.1 | 273 | 14-17 | 2015 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 269 | Siena | MAAC | 45.0 | 259 | 14-18 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 270 | North Florida | ASUN | 44.9 | 262 | 15-17 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 271 | Charlotte | The American | 44.8 | 267 | 11-22 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 272 | Tulsa | The American | 44.8 | 271 | 13-20 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 273 | Evansville | MVC | 44.5 | 257 | 11-21 | 2021 Appalachian St. (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 274 | Harvard | Ivy League | 44.5 | 256 | 12-15 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 275 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 44.4 | 278 | 6-26 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 276 | Colgate | Patriot | 44.4 | 247 | 14-19 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 277 | Texas Southern | SWAC | 44.3 | 285 | 15-17 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 278 | UT Martin | OVC | 44.3 | 291 | 14-19 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 279 | LIU | NEC | 44.2 | 280 | 17-16 | 2015 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 280 | Austin Peay | ASUN | 43.9 | 282 | 14-19 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 281 | Ball State | MAC | 43.9 | 276 | 14-17 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 282 | Delaware State | MEAC | 43.7 | 305 | 16-14 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 283 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 43.5 | 268 | 16-16 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 284 | Columbia | Ivy League | 43.5 | 272 | 12-15 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 285 | Idaho | Big Sky | 43.4 | 269 | 14-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 286 | Tarleton | WAC | 43.4 | 302 | 12-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 287 | Bethune-Cookman | SWAC | 43.3 | 277 | 17-16 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 288 | Rider | MAAC | 43.2 | 314 | 14-19 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 289 | Lehigh | Patriot | 43.2 | 281 | 11-19 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 290 | Houston Christian | Southland | 43.2 | 287 | 12-20 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 291 | Portland | WCC | 43.2 | 288 | 12-20 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 292 | Lafayette | Patriot | 43.1 | 283 | 13-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 293 | Pacific | WCC | 43.1 | 295 | 9-24 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 294 | San Diego | WCC | 43.0 | 324 | 6-27 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 295 | Southern Utah | WAC | 43.0 | 306 | 12-19 | 2021 Appalachian St. (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 296 | Penn | Ivy League | 42.9 | 303 | 8-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 297 | Boston U | Patriot | 42.9 | 290 | 16-16 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 298 | Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 42.9 | 299 | 11-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 299 | Bowling Green | MAC | 42.9 | 289 | 14-18 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 300 | Charleston Southern | Big South | 42.8 | 294 | 10-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 301 | NC Central | MEAC | 42.7 | 319 | 14-19 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 302 | VMI | SoCon | 42.5 | 298 | 15-19 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 303 | Weber State | Big Sky | 42.5 | 301 | 12-22 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 304 | Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 42.5 | 284 | 10-22 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 305 | Morgan State | MEAC | 42.4 | 332 | 14-18 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 306 | Eastern Illinois | OVC | 42.2 | 318 | 12-19 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 307 | IU Indianapolis | Horizon | 42.2 | 315 | 10-22 | #N/A | ||||||||
| 308 | Loyola Maryland | Patriot | 42.2 | 308 | 12-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 309 | Alcorn | SWAC | 42.2 | 330 | 11-21 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 310 | Tennessee Tech | OVC | 42.1 | 292 | 15-17 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 311 | UMBC | America East | 42.1 | 296 | 13-19 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 312 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | 42.1 | 320 | 12-21 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 313 | Utah Tech | WAC | 42.0 | 309 | 7-26 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 314 | FDU | NEC | 41.9 | 304 | 13-20 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 315 | Morehead State | OVC | 41.9 | 317 | 15-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 316 | Long Beach State | Big West | 41.9 | 326 | 7-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 317 | Air Force | Mountain West | 41.8 | 323 | 4-28 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 318 | Howard | MEAC | 41.7 | 316 | 12-20 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 319 | Denver | Summit League | 41.7 | 300 | 11-21 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 320 | Lindenwood | OVC | 41.6 | 313 | 16-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 321 | Binghamton | America East | 41.6 | 311 | 15-17 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 322 | Saint Francis | NEC | 41.6 | 16 | 0.04 | 297 | 16-17 | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) |
| 323 | Grambling | SWAC | 41.4 | 325 | 12-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 324 | Fairfield | MAAC | 41.3 | 327 | 12-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 325 | Army | Patriot | 41.3 | 307 | 16-15 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 326 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 41.2 | 328 | 10-22 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 327 | Florida A&M | SWAC | 40.9 | 321 | 14-17 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 328 | Stonehill | NEC | 40.9 | 312 | 15-17 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 329 | Holy Cross | Patriot | 40.8 | 310 | 13-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 330 | Niagara | MAAC | 40.7 | 322 | 11-20 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 331 | Detroit Mercy | Horizon | 40.7 | 329 | 8-24 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 332 | North Carolina A&T | CAA | 40.6 | 333 | 7-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 333 | Stony Brook | CAA | 40.4 | 340 | 8-24 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 334 | Wagner | NEC | 40.3 | 339 | 14-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 335 | East Texas A&M | Southland | 40.3 | 335 | 5-26 | #N/A | ||||||||
| 336 | Oral Roberts | Summit League | 40.3 | 334 | 7-23 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 337 | Southern Indiana | OVC | 40.2 | 331 | 10-20 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 338 | New Orleans | Southland | 39.7 | 346 | 4-27 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 339 | ULM | Sun Belt | 39.7 | 349 | 7-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 340 | Western Carolina | SoCon | 39.7 | 342 | 8-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 341 | Green Bay | Horizon | 39.6 | 338 | 4-28 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 342 | Western Illinois | OVC | 39.3 | 337 | 12-19 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 343 | Central Arkansas | ASUN | 39.3 | 343 | 9-24 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 344 | Sacramento State | Big Sky | 39.2 | 344 | 7-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 345 | Buffalo | MAC | 39.1 | 341 | 9-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 346 | USC Upstate | Big South | 39.0 | 347 | 6-26 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 347 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 39.0 | 354 | 6-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 348 | Cal State Fullerton | Big West | 38.9 | 348 | 6-26 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 349 | Bellarmine | ASUN | 38.6 | 351 | 5-26 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 350 | NJIT | America East | 38.4 | 352 | 6-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 351 | Stetson | ASUN | 38.3 | 353 | 8-24 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 352 | New Hampshire | America East | 37.6 | 355 | 8-24 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 353 | Alabama A&M | SWAC | 37.5 | 360 | 10-22 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 354 | Le Moyne | NEC | 37.5 | 350 | 9-23 | 2018 Loyola Chicago (11-seed, F4) | ||||||||
| 355 | The Citadel | SoCon | 37.3 | 362 | 5-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 356 | Prairie View | SWAC | 37.1 | 356 | 5-27 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 357 | UMES | MEAC | 36.8 | 361 | 6-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 358 | Canisius | MAAC | 36.4 | 357 | 3-28 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 359 | Coppin State | MEAC | 36.4 | 359 | 6-24 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 360 | Chicago State | NEC | 36.2 | 358 | 4-28 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 361 | UAPB | SWAC | 35.4 | 363 | 6-25 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 362 | Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 30.2 | 364 | 3-28 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
Tournament Index highlights:
- Correctly predicted four of the past five national champions
- Correctly predicted 16 Final Four teams since 2013
- “Upset Alert” teams have lost 40 percent of their first-round matchups compared to the tournament average of 23 percent
- “Cinderella Watch” teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 or further 27 percent of the time compared to the tournament average of 7.9 percent
- “Dark Horse” teams have won 55 percent more NCAA Tournament games than their seed expectation
How it works: Teams are given 0-to-100 power ratings based on key metrics that predict March Madness success, according to our research. These metrics include team efficiencies, Four Factors, NBA talent, tournament experience, preseason rankings and more.
After the bracket release on Selection Sunday, every team has a 0-to-100 “path rating” that determines the difficulty of their tournament path based on likely tournament opponents. For example, a 2-seed in a weaker region may have a more favorable draw than a 1-seed in a stronger region, which is reflected by this rating.
Round-by-round win probabilities are then generated for every team. From there, using ESPN’s Tournament Challenge pick data, we identify which teams provide the best overall value to help win your bracket pool. Value is determined by how many bracket points you would be expected to “gain” over your pool based on correctly selecting a particular team.
Here’s an example: In 2021, 6-seed BYU faced 11-seed UCLA in the first round. Our model gave BYU a 56.8% win probability compared to the 34.2% who selected UCLA to advance while our model gave UCLA a 43.2% win probability compared to the 65.8% who selected BYU to advance. Standard bracket formats typically follow the 10-20-40-80-160-320 round-by-round scoring format. The calculation for first-round pick value looks like the following:
- BYU: 0.568 win probability * 0.342 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 1.9 pick value
- UCLA: 0.423 win probability * 0.658 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 2.8 pick value
These calculations continue through the remaining five rounds and are summed for the team’s final overall pick value. The pick value indicates which teams you should select in each round of your bracket to earn the most expected points possible over your bracket pool.
Our model outsmarts the competition.
First and foremost, tournament seeds can deceive. Though the 2014 Kentucky team underwhelmed during the regular season, John Calipari’s Wildcats still had one of the tournament’s most talented rosters that year. Remember, the Cats were the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll going into the 2013-14 campaign.
As an 8-seed, Kentucky’s Power Rating of 79.6 would have even been considered above-average for a 3-seed, let alone an 8. It should come as somewhat less of a surprise, then, that the woefully under-seeded Wildcats advanced all the way to the national title game that year.
Meanwhile, a team like 2017 Minnesota — with a Power Rating of just 66.6 — entered the Big Dance as a 5-seed, but had a relative strength more resembling a 9-seed. Tournament Index would have said to avoid this 5-seed like the plague. As it happened, the Gophers trailed 12-seed Middle Tennessee by as many as 17 points in an eventual 81-72 first-round loss.
The selection committee has an impossible job to “correctly” select and seed all 68 teams, which means there is always hidden value to be found. To that end, Tournament Index shines a light into all the nooks and crannies of the bracket.
Below are tables showing how to interpret the Tournament Index ratings and identify potential advantages in your bracket pool.
NCAA Tournament wins based on Tournament Index Power Rating
| Power Rating | Average NCAA Tournament Wins |
| 88 or higher | 3.67 |
| 80 to 87.9 | 2.24 |
| 70 to 79.9 | 1.17 |
| 60 to 69.9 | 0.62 |
| 59.9 or lower | 0.18 |
Tournament Index Power Ratings By Seed
You must be logged in to post a comment.