Tournament Index: Upset Alerts
Upset Alerts
Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.
An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.
| Seed Matchup | Average Win Probability | “Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold |
| 16 vs. 1 | 5.4% | 7.1% |
| 15 vs. 2 | 9.1% | 12.6% |
| 14 vs. 3 | 15.9% | 21.2% |
| 13 vs. 4 | 18.1% | 24.8% |
| 12 vs. 5 | 29.7% | 39.2% |
| 11 vs. 6 | 38.7% | 51.4% |
Since 2013, a total of 43 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.
Seeds 1-3
| Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
| Avg. Tournament Wins | 1.79 | 2.42 |
| Reached Second Round | 84.2% | 90.1% |
| Reached Sweet 16 | 52.6% | 65.3% |
Seeds 4-6
| Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
| Avg. Tournament Wins | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| Reached Second Round | 41.7% | 69.7% |
| Reached Sweet 16 | 16.7% | 39.6% |
Tournament Index Upset Alert history
Orange highlight denotes team failed to meet or exceed performance against seed expectation.
- 2024
- 1-North Carolina (Sweet 16)
- 6-Clemson (Elite Eight)
- 5-Wisconsin (1st Round)
- 2023
- 4-Virginia (1st Round)
- 2-Marquette (2nd Round)
- 1-Kansas (2nd Round)
- 5-Miami (Final Four)
- 2-Texas (Elite Eight)
- 2022
- 6-Colorado State (1st Round)
- 5-Saint Mary’s (2nd Round)
- 1-Arizona (Sweet 16)
- 4-Providence (Sweet 16)
- 2021
- 3-Arkansas (Elite Eight)
- 4-Purdue (1st Round)
- 2019
- 4-Kansas State (1st Round)
- 5-Wisconsin (1st Round)
- 5-Marquette (1st Round)
- 2018
- 1-Kansas (Final Four)
- 1-Xavier (2nd Round)
- 5-Clemson (Sweet 16)
- 2017
- 5-Minnesota (1st Round)
- 6-Maryland (1st Round)
- 2016
- 1-Oregon (Elite Eight)
- 3-West Virginia (1st Round)
- 6-Seton Hall (1st Round)
- 2-Xavier (2nd Round)
- 2015
- 3-Baylor (1st Round)
- 2-Kansas (2nd Round)
- 4-Maryland (2nd Round)
- 6-Butler (2nd Round)
- 2014
- 2-Wisconsin (Final Four)
- 5-Cincinnati (1st Round)
- 6-UMass (1st Round)
- 1-Wichita State (2nd Round)
- 5-Saint Louis (2nd Round)
- 1-Virginia (Sweet 16)
- 3-Iowa State (Sweet 16)
- 4-San Diego State (Sweet 16)
- 2013
- 3-Marquette (Elite Eight)
- 2-Georgetown (1st Round)
- 4-Kansas State (1st Round)
- 5-Oklahoma State (1st Round)
- 6-UCLA (1st Round)
- 4-Saint Louis (2nd Round)
- 5-VCU (2nd Round)
- 2-Miami (Sweet 16)
You must be logged in to post a comment.