Once again, a large Saturday slate will play a pivotal role in determining the postseason hopes for teams across the college basketball landscape.
Another college basketball Saturday is on the horizon. With only a few weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, teams across the country are jostling for seed position in both the Big Dance and in their respective conference tournaments. Perhaps more than anything, bubble teams everywhere are scrambling to find some late-season quality wins and scoreboard-watching each other on off nights.
There aren’t many squads with “off nights” this Saturday, though, as the Feb. 24 slate features 137 games. Let’s dive into those with the most bracketology impact.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
Highly-rated teams playing for seeding
We’ll get to the games with the most bubble implications soon. But if you’re just looking to watch the highest-quality college basketball games this weekend, three stand out among the rest.
Alabama at Kentucky
I hope you like scoring because buckets will be dropped in this matchup. Alabama and Kentucky not only rank in the top 10 nationally for adjusted offensive efficiency and shortest average offensive possession length, but they are also sub-70 in adjusted defense. KenPom projects a total of 178 points in this one. This game projects as an absolute track meet between teams projected as top-six seeds next month.
Houston at Baylor
Baylor is an offensive juggernaut that ranks second nationally in 3-point percentage. But the Bears’ No. 4 ranked adjusted offensive will have its hands full when the nation’s top defense comes to town. The gap between Houston and the No. 2 defense (Iowa St.) is larger than the gap between No. 2 and No. 15. Does good offense beat good defense? And can Baylor slow down an underrated Houston offense?
Texas at Kansas
Kansas is a phenomenal 13-0 in Allen Fieldhouse this season, but that is nothing new in Lawrence. Texas’ hands will be full in this game, but the Longhorns have played well away from home this year. None of their road wins are on the level of beating Kansas, but they already have victories at Cincinnati, Oklahoma and TCU in the Big 12. Do they have another surprise in store, or will Kansas continue to assert itself at home? Texas could lock itself into the projected field for good, while KU looks to stay on the No. 2 line.
“Safe” teams playing for seeding vs. non-tournament teams
Looking to get some early homework done on some NCAA Tournament teams who play in relatively safer games this Saturday? Look no further:
- Iowa State (projected No. 3 seed): vs. West Virginia (No. 151)
- Auburn (projected No. 4 seed): at Georgia (No. 95)
- San Diego State (projected No. 4 seed): at Fresno State (No. 207)
- Clemson (projected No. 5 seed): vs. Florida State (No. 94)
- Washington State (projected No. 5 seed): at Arizona State (No. 136)
- Colorado State (projected No. 7 seed): at UNLV (No. 87)
- Florida (projected No. 7 seed): vs. Vanderbilt (No. 230)
- Saint Mary’s (projected No. 7 seed): vs. San Diego (No. 226)
Top games with bubble implications
Butler at Seton Hall
The Big East is the most bubblicious league in the country — and it isn’t close. Seton Hall and Butler are both in precarious positions coming down the final stretch. The Pirates won the first meeting of these teams in Indianapolis and are currently better positioned to make the field. That could flip quickly over a brutal closing stretch. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are desperate to correct course after losing three straight. Butler must finish 3-1 over its last four games, and evening the series with Seton Hall would make that quest much more manageable. This is the bubble game with the most leverage on Saturday.
South Carolina at Ole Miss
Both of these teams boast elite resume metrics combined with poor quality metrics. Despite averaging in the top 30 across SOR and KPI, neither is in the top 50 in the other metrics. Back-to-back losses have South Carolina sliding toward double-digit seed territory, and the Gamecocks are favored to win just one more down the stretch. A Quadrant 1 road win at Ole Miss would relieve some stress. As for Ole Miss, this Q2 home game is close to a must-win. The Rebels have lost four of five, and impressive resume metrics alone are no longer enough to carry their resume. Ole Miss is a major bubble team to monitor.
Utah at Colorado
Utah at Colorado is not a play-in game, but it might be a play-out. The Buffaloes desperately need this Quadrant 2 home win after sliding down to 60th in SOR with four losses in their last six games. Utah might not need this Q1 road win, but it is running out of chances to push back into the field. After Saturday, only one of Utah’s final four games falls into the upper two quadrants. The Utes would have a 78.9 percent chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik, if it can win in Boulder — or just 46.2 percent with a loss. Meanwhile, Colorado’s tourney chances would fall to 8.8 percent if it loses this one.
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
Here is another matchup between two bubble teams on the outside looking in. Each of their most recent games highlighted different trends, though. The Panthers most recently lost by 33 at Wake Forest to fall into the “Next Four Out” category. Meanwhile, the Hokies are fresh off a huge 34-point home win over Virginia and now sit next to Pitt in the realm of at-large longshots. With their respective current resumes, this is a play-out game. Whoever loses will drop below a 6 percent percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik. The winner would remain a longshot, but its odds would be above 15 percent.
Duke at Wake Forest
Wake Forest might have more to gain than any team in the country this weekend. The Demon Deacons are a quality metrics darling, ranking 21st in both BPI and KenPom, but are right on the cutline due to a lack of quality wins. They are just 1-5 in Quadrant 1 games, and their win over Florida may not stay in Q1. Even with great metrics, just one quality win will not cut it on Selection Sunday. Beating Duke would almost assuredly push Wake into the projected field — and possibly with breathing room — and KenPom gives the Deacs a 50 percent win probability. Duke would up its odds at a protected seed with a win.
Cincinnati at TCU
Cincinnati was already hovering around the projected cutline when it lost a Quadrant 3 home game to Oklahoma State. Now, the Bearcats are entering desperation mode and need to win at least one of their next two games. Considering the second one is at Houston, their best bet is winning at TCU on Saturday. And while the Horned Frogs are very good and Cincinnati has lost eight of 12, the Bearcats already beat TCU in overtime on Jan. 16. Cincy has also won back-to-back road games. As for TCU, the Horned Frogs are sitting solidly in single-digit seed territory and will be playing mostly for seeding.
Texas A&M at Tennessee
The only reason why Texas A&M doesn’t have five Quadrant 3 losses is because its recent loss at home to Arkansas pushed its road loss to Arkansas into Quadrant 3. Even though the Aggies have a great collection of wins, their bad losses are nearing an insurmountable total and have fallen to No. 61 in SOR. However, as much as the bad losses make it difficult to include the Aggies, a seventh Quadrant 1 win (and fourth Q1A win) at Tennessee would make it just as hard to leave them out. Tennessee is very safely in the field as a projected No. 2 seed, and the Vols could crash the No. 1 seed party with a strong finish.
Iowa at Illinois
Back-to-back wins over future NCAA Tournament teams in Wisconsin and Michigan State have put Iowa into the bubble picture. The Hawkeyes are up to eight wins against the upper two quadrants, rank No. 55 in SOR, and have solid quality metrics. They still have work to do, but three of their final four games are against Illinois or Northwestern, opening the door to sneak into the field. Winning at Illinois will be a steep challenge, but Iowa would garner very serious consideration for the field if it pulls it off. Illinois has lost at home just twice this year, and one was to Marquette in the third game of the season.
North Carolina at Virginia
Virginia’s recent losses to Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech have been tremendously detrimental to its resume. Once trending toward a No. 7 seed, the Cavaliers are now back in the bubble picture — albeit still a step or two ahead of the cutline. But as KenPom underdogs in each of its next three games, Virginia is not safe. The Cavs could reassert themselves as an NCAA Tournament team by beating North Carolina at home. Torvik puts UVA’s odds of dancing at 82.2 percent with a win but only 52.5% with a loss. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are hoping to pick up a Quadrant 1 road win to aid in their quest for a No. 1 seed.
Villanova at UConn
Opportunity knocks for Villanova. The Wildcats have been very strong of late, and though still in the thick of the cutline conversation, they are playing with a bit of house money in this game. Nobody expects Villanova to win at UConn, but doing so would push them firmly into the field. Torvik projects that Nova’s at-large odds would soar to 96.1 percent if it pulls the upset. That said, the reason nobody expects Villanova to win is because UConn is arguably the best team in the country — and will be angry after losing at Creighton. Still, it’s a massive opportunity without much downside for Kyle Neptune’s group.
Bubble teams facing landmine road games
Road games represent tremendous opportunities — without much to lose — for many teams in the bubble conversation. Teams like Villanova and Texas A&M above would benefit significantly from stealing road wins this weekend, whereas losses wouldn’t drop their odds too much. On the other hand, several bubble teams have road matchups this weekend with a much lower opportunity cost.
- Oklahoma (projected No. 8 seed): at Oklahoma State (No. 114 in NET)
- Boise State (projected No. 9 seed): at Wyoming (No. 158)
- Mississippi State (projected No. 10 seed): at LSU (No. 84)
- Drake (projected First Four Out): at Northern Iowa (No. 122)
- Oregon (projected Next Four Out): at California (No. 117)
- Appalachian State (projected automatic bid): at Marshall (No. 237)
- Grand Canyon (projected automatic bid): at Abilene Christian (No. 257)
- James Madison (projected out): at Georgia Southern (No. 306)
- Princeton (projected out): at Dartmouth (No. 335)
Mid-major longshots Appalachian State, Grand Canyon, James Madison, and Princeton all play Quadrant 4 games on the road this Saturday. Losses for any of those teams would mean elimination from at-large contention. Meanwhile, Boise State plays a Quadrant 3 road game at Wyoming, which already knocked off Colorado State and Nevada at home. The Broncos could survive a loss, but they’d be better off not risking it with a difficult final stretch looming.
Oklahoma and Mississippi State have some separation from the cutline but head into Quadrant 2 road games against non-tournament teams coming off great wins. Wins by the Sooners and Bulldogs would solidify their placement in the field and give them a buffer from the cutline. Both would stay on the right side of the bubble even with losses, but it would make things dicier. Mississippi State, which is 1-6 in road games this season, could use another road win to avoid giving the committee a reason to keep it out.
Oregon and Drake have Quadrant 2 road games against California and Northern Iowa, respectively, and both are must-win contests. A loss would make it tough for either team to stay in the bubble mix.
“Don’t lose at home as heavy favorites” games
Unlike last weekend when a bevy of bubble teams faced Quadrant 3 or 4 games at home, only four teams are in that landmine situation this weekend. Winning these games won’t make anyone’s resume stronger, but losses would be catastrophic for the bubble teams below.
- New Mexico (projected No. 9 seed): vs. Air Force (No. 273 in NET)
- Gonzaga (projected No. 11 seed): vs. Santa Clara (No. 104)
- Indiana State (projected automatic bid): vs. Illinois Chicago (No. 181)
- McNeese State (projected automatic bid): vs. Incarnate Word (No. 339)
KenPom projects at least an 89 percent win probability for each of these heavy favorites, so these four need to handle their business. Picking up convincing wins would also help. New Mexico is the only one of the four that could remain in the field even with a loss on Saturday. Gonzaga is the only other team even capable of recovering from a loss to stay in the at-large conversation.