March Madness 2024: The only six teams that can win the national championship

Everyone enters the 2024 NCAA Tournament with national championship aspirations, yet only six teams have what it takes to cut down the nets.

The NCAA Tournament is the best postseason in all of sports, largely because of its unpredictable upsets and Cinderella runs. But the single-elimination format also provides a unique test for the nation’s elite. Teams must be able to win in a variety of ways and handle high-pressure situations with composure.

There is no perfect recipe for predicting which team will cut down the nets in Phoenix on April 8. However, some notable trends can serve as a guide.

For instance, since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 195, every national champion has reached at least the semifinals of their conference tournament. All but two national champs in the analytics era (since 1999) have ranked top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The lone exceptions were the 2011 and 2014 UConn squads.

Those criteria rule out a few of this year’s high seeds right off the bat.

Neither Duke nor Tennessee won a game in their respective conference tournaments. Iowa State does not meet the offensive threshold, while others such as Illinois and Alabama were not up to snuff defensively. Meanwhile, for another handful of teams that do fit the criteria — I simply don’t think they have shown the ability or consistency to avoid a slip-up.

What we’re left with is six teams — the only six teams — capable of winning it all.

Remember, this is not a list of the teams I think will make the Final Four, or the only teams that can make long runs. These are the teams that are built to win this year’s national championship. Some may flame out quickly, but one of these squads will soon be on top the world.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue’s historic loss to Fairleigh Dickinson a year ago has been a dark cloud hanging over this program. That loss was largely caused by struggles against pressure and too many turnovers. Both of those issues had popped up over the final month of the season, too.

This year’s team doesn’t have those issues. National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey is still the sport’s most unstoppable force, and Braden Smith has turned into one of the country’s top facilitators. Meanwhile, Lance Jones gives the Boilermakers another high-level perimeter defender — which would’ve been helpful last season.

Purdue’s four losses — including to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament — have come in no small part because of poor 3-point shooting. When the Boilermakers are shooting at their normal level (40.8 percent, second nationally), they can beat anyone in America.