The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the NCAA basketball weekend, including a look at Iowa State and a pair of Big Ten teams.
One of the things we love about college basketball is the ability for anyone to lose on any given night, particularly on the road. We romanticize upsets in this sport.
This season has felt more romantic than normal. Ranked teams are losing on the road to unranked foes at a higher rate than ever, creating a lot of turnover in the polls. With so many vulnerable teams and surprising results, the sport’s elite tier is smaller than normal.
Purdue, Connecticut, North Carolina and Houston have seemingly become the consensus top four. The ordering of those teams can be left up to interpretation, but those programs have separated themselves.
The Boilermakers, Huskies and Cougars all only have two losses on the season, and all six of those defeats came on the road in conference play. UNC, meanwhile, has not lost since Dec. 16 and has yet to lose a true road game. Not coincidentally, these are the four projected No. 1 seeds in the latest projections from Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins.
Behind those four, a handful of teams are surging and look like they will be dangerous teams in March. We’ll start this Rauf Report with a look at Iowa State, which is playing as well as anyone.
Iowa State is a serious Final Four contender
Iowa State has managed to come back from a rocky nonconference performance. The Cyclones posted an 11-2 mark outside the league, yet only had one victory over a KenPom top-50 team (Iowa). That’s far from a resume-carrying win.
The good news is that TJ Otzelberger’s squad has really picked things up in conference play. They are 5-1 in their last six games, including victories over Houston, TCU and Kansas.
The Cyclones — ranked No. 3 nationally in adjusted defense, per KenPom — flexed their muscles in those games. Iowa State has been elite on that end since Otzelberger took over, finishing with a top-8 defense each of the last two seasons.
But what makes Iowa State dangerous is finally pairing a quality offense with that defense.
Last season, the Cyclones were 114th in adjusted offensive efficiency; this season’s team is currently 51st. Tamin Lipsey (13.9 ppg, 5.7 apg) and Keshon Gilbert (13.7 ppg, 4.3 apg) form a high-level backcourt. When paired with a sharpshooter like freshman Milan Momcilovic (.408 3P%), those guards deftly break down opposing defenses. The production runs deep, too: Seven players average at least 7.0 points, and five are averaging over 9.5.
No one is going to mistake Iowa State’s offense for an elite unit, but it is more than good enough when paired with its defense. Teams that followed a similar recipe have been incredibly successful in the NCAA Tournament, too.
The three teams with the most similar efficiency profiles, per Torvik, fared well in the NCAA Tournament:
- 2013 Louisville, won National Championship
- 2012 Kansas, reached National Championship
- 2020 Arizona, NCAA Tournament canceled
Here are the past teams with the five most similar resumes, per Torvik:
- 2008 Xavier, reached Elite Eight
- 2011 Kentucky, reached Final Four
- 2014 Creighton, reached Second Round
- 2008 Louisville, reached Elite Eight
- 2019 Texas Tech, reached National Championship
All that is to say this: The Cyclones could be in for a very deep run in the NCAA Tournament if they can maintain this level of play.
Wisconsin’s AJ Storr has become a star
Wisconsin has entered the contender conversation, too. The Badgers are 16-4 on the season following a 1-2 start, and the only losses since then have been on the road. They currently sit alone atop the Big Ten and will meet second-place Purdue in a heavyweight bout next weekend.
It’s no surprise to see the Boilermakers in this position. However, few expected the same from Wisconsin despite it returning most of its production from last season. That continuity has certainly helped, and players up and down the roster have improved. That said, the main reason for Wisconsin’s upswing has been the play of AJ Storr.
The St. John’s transfer has become a true go-to guy for this group. In his new digs, Storr adds the kind of dynamic and versatile scoring threat this roster lacked. Storr has scored in double figures in 15 straight games, the highlight coming in a 28-point showing against Michigan State on Friday.
“He’s bought in,” Wisconsin coach Greg Gard said after the game. “He’s been great to coach. He listens. He knew he wanted to come here to get better and add pieces to his game that he didn’t have. And he’s done that.”
The Badgers typically aren’t an offensive juggernaut — they were 140th in adjusted offensive efficiency last year — but this group has been a top-five unit nationally. This balanced group shoots the 3-ball well, rarely turns it over, and scores efficiently around the rim. The whole team deserves credit for the improvement, but no one more so than the heavily used Storr.
Wisconsin has not made the Sweet 16 since 2017, Gard’s second season in charge. This team is trending toward ending that streak, and Storr’s offensive production is the catalyst.
Ohio State’s regressing at the wrong time
While Wisconsin is trending upward, Ohio State is heading in the wrong direction. One season removed from cratering in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes are on pace to meet the same unfortunate fate.
Ohio State’s offense was running hot early in the season thanks to the backcourt play of Roddy Gayle and Bruce Thornton. OSU started 12-2, grabbing an impressive 11-point victory over Alabama along the way.
Since beating Rutgers on Jan. 3, however, the wheels have completely fallen off. The Buckeyes have been much worse offensively, particularly from the perimeter, and have regressed defensively.
Considering last season, it’s fair to wonder if this is becoming a trend under Holtmann. A year ago, the Buckeyes went 6-16 after Jan. 1 — and half of those victories came in the Big Ten Tournament. That slide started roughly the same time as this one.
It’s also fair to question how good Ohio State was in the first place.
The Buckeyes split the only two games they played against KenPom top-80 teams during that 12-2 start, beating Alabama but losing to Texas A&M. Since beating Rutgers, OSU has lost six of seven and has dropped five straight against the KenPom top 100.
I will be surprised if Ohio State turns this around, especially given its upcoming stretch. Four of its next six games are Quad 1 opportunities, three of which are against KenPom top-11 teams (Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue). If the season continues to go the wrong way, it should spark a conversation about Holtmann’s future with the program.
Appalachian State is among the country’s best mid-majors
As the calendar flips to February this week, potential Cinderella candidates are coming into focus. Appalachian State is proving it belongs in that conversation.
The Mountaineers are 17-4 and hold sole possession of first place in the Sun Belt after completing a season sweep of James Madison on Saturday. App State has benefitted from roster continuity, a deep bench, and an elite defensive unit that has become a calling card under Dustin Kerns.
Even still, this team is on pace to produce the best defense in program history. It ranks 36th nationally, per KenPom, thanks to suffocating perimeter defense and elite rim protection. Donovan Gregory is a high-level all-around defender — “He’s our Draymond Green,” Kerns told me before the season — and big man Justin Abson has emerged as one of the nation’s best rim protectors. After swatting eight shots against JMU, Abson currently ranks 14th nationally in block rate.
The Mountaineers have done more than enough to validate themselves as a good team. They have a victory over Auburn, plus two wins over James Madison — not to mention a 30-point drubbing of UNC Wilmington, which beat Kentucky and is among the favorites in the CAA.
In fact, App State’s resume has some thinking the Mountaineers can get into the at-large conversation. Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins considers it a possibility, but he notes the Mountaineers have work to do down the stretch.
“They probably need to start putting together more impressive margins to improve their metrics into bubble territory,” he told me. “They are hovering in the upper 70s right now. In my opinion, very fringe mid-major bubble teams need to shore up as many holes as possible in a resume. Fair or not, even a great record doesn’t assure anything. We aren’t that far removed from a 28-5 Saint Mary’s team in 2018 not making the NCAA Tournament.”
Teams that have gotten into the Big Dance with similar profiles, however, have been placed on the coveted 12-seed or 13-seed lines. Those spots are usually rife with first-round upsets, and we already know Appalachian State can do damage if it gets there. Keep an eye on these Mountaineers.
Richmond’s emergence atop the A-10
Dayton has been the best team in the A-10 for most of the season. The Flyers are the only team in the conference with a legitimate case for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. But in a league hoping to avoid a one-bid fate, another team needed to step up.
Richmond has been that team. The Spiders are all alone atop the A-10 standings after beating Dayton at home on Saturday, which is easily Richmond’s biggest win of the season. It also put some validation on a stunning in-season turnaround.
Chris Mooney’s squad was inconsistent during the first month of the season, relying on its offense to win games. It now boasts the nation’s second-longest win streak at 10 games, a run that has been propelled by elite defensive performances.
“To be the kind of program that can be solid enough and good enough, and when that opportunity comes, can take advantage of it, that’s something we’re very proud of,” Mooney told reporters postgame. “We have a good team, for sure, and hopefully growing in confidence.”
The numbers certainly back that up. Richmond also has a favorable schedule the rest of the way. The Spiders avoid a return trip to Dayton and only have three games remaining against teams with winning records in conference play. So, while the Flyers are receiving national attention, Richmond has the inside track on the top seed in the A-10 Tournament.
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