NCAA Basketball: Michigan State's resurgence, ACC standouts highlight Feb. 19 Rauf Report

This latest Rauf Report breaks down the college basketball weekend, including why Michigan State is once again looking likely to be a threat in March.

It’s rare to learn something completely new about a team this late into the season, but that may be what happened with Kentucky on Saturday night.

Yes, UConn’s beatdown of Marquette was certainly noteworthy. So, too, was Purdue’s loss to Ohio State in the Buckeyes’ first game since firing Chris Holtmann.

But Kentucky’s 70-59 win over Auburn was something different. The Wildcats looked like a national championship frontrunner alongside UConn and Purdue a month ago thanks to a dazzling offense and an arsenal of players with elite shot-making ability. Defensive woes limited them heavily in a 2-4 skid as the Cats continued their issues on that end of the court, causing seemingly everyone to write them off.

Then Kentucky put on an elite defensive display against Auburn. Mind you, the Tigers’ elite offense had just scored 101 points on South Carolina, and this team is as good as anyone when playing at home. The Wildcats walked into Neville Arena, dragged the Tigers into the mud, and beat them in a way that seemed impossible not that long ago.

It was the kind of game Kentucky hasn’t been able to win — the kind of game the Cats need to be able to win if they are going to reach Big Blue Nation’s championship aspirations. We won’t get too far ahead of ourselves yet. It is just one game, after all. Still, Kentucky showed something it hadn’t all season. We’ll see if the Wildcats can keep it up.

But now we start this Rauf Report with another turnaround team: Michigan State, which is quietly playing like one of the country’s best after a dismal start to the season.

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Michigan State’s resurgence

Remember when Michigan State was a punchline in college basketball circles a few short months ago? Whether it was the season-opening loss to James Madison or ugly losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, the Spartans weren’t being taken seriously as a contender of any kind after its 4-5 start.

Tom Izzo never wavered.

“I think we’ve got a damn good team. I really do,” he declared after falling to Duke in the Champions Classic in November. “We haven’t played very good, but we’re going to play good.”

And wouldn’t you know it: Since dropping to 4-5 after the Dec. 10 loss to Nebraska, the Spartans have been better than just “good.”

Since blowing out Baylor on Dec. 16, Michigan State has been a top-10 team according to Bart Torvik’s T-Rank, largely thanks to an improved offense. Comical shooting woes hampered the Spartans in their first nine games, but MSU seems to be having the last laugh. Sparty ranks fourth nationally in 3-point percentage since beating the Bears.

Sure, Michigan State still isn’t shooting a ton of 3-pointers. Making them at a high clip, though, has brought back the spacing that the offense previously lacked. There are more driving lanes open for Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins. Malik Hall has returned to playing at an All-Big Ten level.

The Spartans have also picked up some significant victories of late. They made a statement with a home win over Illinois on Feb. 10, then cruised comfortably to road wins over Penn State and Michigan. Those last two were always supposed to be wins for Sparty, but we’ve seen how Big Ten teams have struggled on the road recently. (Hi, Purdue.)

This team isn’t perfect, but it’s also far from the disaster from earlier in the season. The Spartans are playing at a high level and have proven they can beat high-quality teams. If they can hold serve at home against Iowa and Ohio State this week, a trip to West Lafayette on March 2 should be a ton of fun.

Blake Hinson is trying to will Pitt to the postseason

Pitt may not have had the preseason hype of a Michigan State, but after dancing a year ago, Panther fans were hopeful for a repeat. That hope appears to be well-placed.

There are a lot of exciting players on this team, and all of them are contributing to Pitt’s 17-8 record. However, the Panthers have entered the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation thanks to a five-game win streak that includes two Quad 2 victories (Wake Forest, NC State) and a Quad 1 win at Virginia. In fact, this team is 7-1 going back to its Jan. 20 win at Duke.

It’s been a sustained run of form for Pitt — and Blake Hinson is the one sustaining it.

The sixth-year senior has played the best basketball of his career over the past eight games, averaging 21.5 points and shooting 35-of-69 (50.7 percent) on 3-pointers. His best performance came Saturday against Louisville when he scored a career-high 41 points and nearly outscored the Cardinals by himself.

“I don’t know if I’ve had anyone shooting 3s like that,” head coach Jeff Capel said of Hinson in postgame comments. “When I’ve been a head coach, I don’t know if I’ve had anyone shoot the basketball like him.”

The 6-8, 230-pounder has put himself squarely in the ACC Player of the Year conversation, but he is more focused on getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

“At the end of the day, the most special thing that happened today was that we won and we’re on a five-game winning streak,” Hinson told reporters. “That’s the most special thing, and what’s the most important for this team.”

The Panthers have a chance to make their bubble case much stronger over the next four games with two Quad 1 opportunities and two more in Quad 2, starting with Wake Forest on Tuesday.

It’s time to accept Wake Forest for what it is

Speaking of the Demon Deacons, it’s time they started putting more substance around their hype.

All the analytical ranking systems like this team. Wake Forest is 26th in KenPom, 30th in Torvik and 40th in the NET. On the court, Steve Forbes’ squad has shown the ability to play with just about anyone. Too often, though, the Deacs have been unable to get over the hump and turn close games into wins.

The Demon Deacons are just 3-8 in games decided by single digits, all of which came against teams ranked in the KenPom top 100. That is another problem with this team: Wake Forest has trounced the lesser teams it has faced, but it’s been nowhere near as effective against those better teams.

Generally regarded as a good offensive team, Wake’s offense goes from elite to poor against its toughest competition. Those same opponents have also shot a much higher percentage from the field. The analytics seem to be propping up the Deacons because of their margin of victory against lower-tier foes.

Saturday’s loss to Virginia was emblematic of that inability to get over the hump. Wake held the Cavaliers under 50 points, in part because UVA shot just 1-of-11 from the free-throw line. Nevertheless, the Demon Deacons still couldn’t make the plays they needed late, eventually losing 49-47.

Wake Forest is now just 2-25 in Quad 1 games in four seasons under Steve Forbes, a trend that needs to change soon. This week provides ample opportunities with both Pitt and Duke coming to town. If the Deacs lose both games, I think we can kiss their at-large chances goodbye.

Colorado might be auto-bid-or-bust, too

Much like Wake Forest, Colorado is another team that likely needs to win its conference tournament to make it to the Big Dance. The Buffaloes appeared to be delivering on their lofty preseason expectations during the first two months of the season, but conference play has quickly derailed those plans.

Tad Boyle’s squad is just 6-7 overall since Jan. 1, and while the first two losses can be (at least partially) written off by Cody Williams’ injury, that has not been the case of late. The Buffs have lost four of the past six, and the triumphs include home wins over Arizona State and USC — the latter in double OT against a bad Trojan team.

At first, it seemed like a surprising turn for a promising team. Looking under the hood, however, this is kind of who Colorado has been all along.

That 11-2 start — and the lofty metrics that came with it — were largely bolstered by blowouts against weak teams. The only Quad 1 game was a loss at Colorado State, and the only win over a likely NCAA Tournament team was against Washington State.

Colorado is generally mentioned favorably in the bubble discussion because of the amount of projected NBA players on this roster, such as Williams, Tristan da Silva and KJ Simpson. However, the Buffs are on the outside looking in right now, according to HeatCheckCBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins. And at this point in the season, the opportunities for real resume-boosting wins aren’t readily available.

Saturday’s game against Utah (Q2) and a March 7 trip to Oregon (Q1) are Colorado’s only remaining chances in the top two quadrants — and both those teams are on the outside of the projected field.

The Buffs have the talent to win the Pac-12 auto-bid, certainly, but doing so will require them to play at a level they haven’t yet reached.

BYU’s reality check

Speaking of disappointing losses, BYU’s 10-point defeat at Oklahoma State certainly fits the bill. It was just the third Big 12 win of the season for the Cowboys, and it hammered home a major problem for the Cougars: They really struggle on the road.

BYU is now just 2-5 in true road games, with those wins coming over teams at the bottom of the Big 12 in UCF and West Virginia. What’s more important is how the Cougars are losing.

Mark Pope’s squad has been one of the nation’s biggest surprises. BYU’s elite offense spaces the floor, and the Cougars shoot the 3-pointer as well as anyone. Coupled with high-level passing, this is a top-10 offense and one of the country’s hardest units to stop.

As it turns out, that last part may only be true in Provo.

BYU is barely a top-50 team in efficiency in road contests, per Torvik, largely because the offense has disappeared. Its effective field goal percentage drops by over eight points, which makes it much harder to mask deficiencies in defense and rebounding.

The Big 12 is a gauntlet, and nobody is looking down on BYU’s 6-6 conference record on its face. Still, road losses to Utah, Cincinnati, Oklahoma and now Oklahoma State indicate some deeper problems.

The good news for BYU fans is that NCAA Tournament games aren’t played in true road environments, and the Cougars haven’t lost on a neutral court all season. However, context matters. Those three neutral-site games were against Arizona State, NC State and Fresno State, all of whom rank outside the KenPom top 70. Arizona State and Fresno State were Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, respectively.

It’s fair to say that BYU is a very good team, and equally fair to question its ability to perform to that same standard on the road. Both of those things can be true. BYU’s last remaining road games at Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State will put this group to the test.

NCAA Basketball: Michigan State’s resurgence, ACC standouts highlight Feb. 19 Rauf Report

This latest Rauf Report breaks down the college basketball weekend, including why Michigan State is once again looking likely to be a threat in March.