The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the NCAA basketball weekend, including a look at three players on the rise.
With football season now in the rearview mirror following the Super Bowl, NCAA Basketball takes center stage in the American sports calendar. We’ve hit the season’s home stretch – there’s just over a month until Selection Sunday – yet it already feels like we’re tumbling towards an inevitable conclusion.
Purdue and UConn have been the two best teams in the country all season long. Early season debates included Duke, Kansas and Arizona in that mix, but the Boilermakers and Huskies keep winning and separating themselves from everyone else.
It’s creating a similar feeling to that of the 2020-21 season, which featured an undefeated Gonzaga team and the eventual national champion Baylor Bears atop the rankings for virtually the whole season. A COVID pause was the only thing that slowed Scott Drew’s squad that season, and Baylor was the only thing that slowed Gonzaga. The fact those two faced off in the title game was an inevitability.
Purdue and UConn don’t feel inevitable quite yet – the Boilermakers still get antsy late in tight games and the Huskies have survived some close calls on the road – but it is clear that those two have a tier to themselves atop the sport.
The spots behind them in the top 5 have been churning on a weekly basis and Marquette is the latest team to have a crack at that top tier. The Golden Eagles have won seven games in a row and are sitting in second in the Big East behind UConn, and their superstar point guard has been driving this run. We’ll start this Rauf Report with a look at Tyler Kolek’s recent play.
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Tyler Kolek is back to playing like an All-American
Marquette had a shaky start to Big East play, going just 2-3 in its first five league games. November victories over Illinois and Kansas – and a near victory over Purdue in the Maui Invitational title game – raised the bar for the Golden Eagles. However, things went downhill to the point we were questioning the viability of this team in March.
Since losing back-to-back games to Seton Hall and Butler at the start of January, Shaka Smart’s squad hasn’t tasted defeat. It has swept both Villanova and St. John’s while also getting a revenge win over the Pirates and taking care of DePaul and Georgetown. This offense is back to playing at an elite level and the Golden Eagles are playing defense as well as they have been.
But reigning Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek has been the biggest reason for this recent surge. He was producing fine numbers previously yet has taken his game to a level we haven’t seen from him. Kolek is averaging a double-double over the last seven games while shooting efficiently from the field and cutting down on turnovers.
Saturday’s victory over St. John’s was a masterclass. Kolek finished with 27 points, 13 assists and seven rebounds, headlined by some highlight-reel plays and unbelievable passes.
Other players are producing at a high level, too, but no one else on this roster has elevated their game the way Kolek has. If he can continue this level of play this week, when the Golden Eagles play at Butler and at UConn, Marquette has a great chance to win both games and make a significant statement nationally.
Yves Missi may end up being a top-10 pick
Baylor’s loss to Kansas on Saturday was somewhat concerning, as we discussed in a Sleepers Media recap of the game, but Yves Missi‘s continued emergence was on full display.
The freshman big man went off for 21 points, eight rebounds and two blocks against KU’s highly touted front line, which is just the latest in a string of excellent performances from the 7-foot, 235-pounder. He is averaging 16.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 2.0 bpg over the last five games, all significant upticks from his prior averages.
Missi has found ways to become a more consistent offensive force with his ability to drive past opposing bigs and utilize his athleticism to finish around the rim. He has always been a highly rated shot blocker – something Baylor needs given its poor perimeter defense – but those offensive strides have done wonders for both the Bears and his own draft stock.
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony currently has Missi projected just outside the top 20, as he mentions above, but I think we’ll be looking at Missi as a top-10 pick by June. His promise as a rim protector and continually expanding offensive game is reminiscent of Dereck Lively II, who Dallas took with the No. 12 overall pick last season. Missi isn’t as tall as Lively but is more athletic and has shown more offensively in college than Lively did during his lone season at Duke.
If he continues on his current trajectory, too, he may beat out teammate Ja’Kobe Walter and be the first Baylor player selected in the draft.
Arizona’s X-Factor
It feels like the sky is falling whenever we talk about Arizona because the wheels kind of came off after an 8-0 start. The Wildcats went 6-5 in their next 11 games, including road losses to Stanford and Oregon State – teams that won’t sniff the NCAA Tournament.
But Tommy Lloyd’s squad has gotten things back on track with five consecutive wins. Though some have been close, Saturday’s thumping of Colorado indicates this group may have gotten its groove back.
There are several reasons for that. Kylan Boswell seems to have gotten out of his slump, Caleb Love isn’t shooting them out of the game and the bigs are producing consistently again.
However, an uptick in playing time for Jaden Bradley is as big a reason as any. The Alabama transfer played more minutes against Utah on Thursday and Colorado on Saturday than any other game this season, and he played well in both games. Bradley has an incredible ability to create offense for himself and has been an underrated defender (third in the Pac-12 in steal rate).
Per Hoop-Explorer, Arizona is significantly better on both ends of the floor when Bradley is playing.
That data shows Bradley’s defensive impact, which is most important to this team. Everyone on this roster can score at a high level and Tommy Lloyd’s system is perhaps the best in the country. Arizona needs to consistently defend well, too, if it’s going to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, and that’s something that wasn’t happening during those recent struggles.
With Bradley off the floor, the Wildcats are allowing nearly 106 points per 100 possessions while letting opponents shoot 38.0 percent from 3-point range. With him on the floor, those numbers fall to 88.9 and 30.5.
So while Arizona does need Boswell and Love to continue to play well and more efficiently, getting Bradley on the court more may be the bigger key.
UCLA’s turnaround
Speaking of teams that were struggling, remember when we wrote off UCLA last month? I think we were right to do so considering how lifeless the Bruins looked on the court and how animated Mick Cronin appeared in postgame press conferences.
That said, it’s also important to remember that Cronin is one of the nation’s best coaches for a reason.
UCLA has turned things around in a big way this past month and has been playing at a top-25 level, per Torvik, since a Jan. 14 win over Washington. Its only loss during this eight-game stretch came in a six-point loss to Arizona in Tucson, a game in which the Bruins led by 19 points in the first half.
A vastly improved offense has been the key. The defense has improved, yes, but UCLA is scoring the ball at a much higher clip thanks to smarter shot selection, improved 3-point shooting and an increased emphasis on getting to the foul line.
“The key is, you’ve got to stay together through the fire,” Cronin told reporters after Saturday’s win over Cal. “A lot of people start running when that fire starts, but if you recruit good kids, they’ll stay together, especially because they know no matter how much people see my emotion or whatever, they know I care about them and we’re here to make them better.”
The legitimacy of UCLA’s turnaround will be further tested this week as both Colorado and Utah head to Westwood. If it can win both of those games at home, the Bruins will comfortably be in the top four of the league standings.
Washington State looks dangerous
As UCLA surges up the standings, we should also point out Washington State, which sits alone in second place in the Pac-12. The Cougars are one game behind Arizona and own a head-to-head victory over the Wildcats, though Kyle Smith’s squad will head to Tucson on Feb. 22.
Washington State’s recent play isn’t the same kind of shocking surprise we are getting from UCLA, but the Cougars have been playing at a legitimately high level since the calendar flipped to 2024. They have significantly improved on both ends of the floor.
Freshman Myles Rice has become a legitimate star in the backcourt – and he’s the only player under 6-8 in the starting lineup. In fact, he and fellow freshman Isaiah Watts are the only rotation players under 6-7, and the Cougars have found ways to use that size to their advantage.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about this stretch for Wazzu has been its ability to maintain a high level of play away from Pullman. Saturday’s win over Oregon capped a three-game road trip, all of which were Washington State victories. The only loss during these last nine games was in overtime at Cal, and the Cougars had a seven-point lead with just over two minutes left.
The flip side of having that many road games, too, is now Washington State plays five of its remaining seven games at home. There is the trip to face the Arizona schools next week, but the Cougars will be in Pullman otherwise.
That sets Wazzu up well to not only continue this hot streak, but also to potentially sneak into first place in the Pac-12 if Arizona falters.
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