The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the week of NCAA basketball, including breakdowns of Saint Mary’s, Auburn and more.
One of the advantages of this portion of the college basketball schedule is that conference play generally gives us intriguing, high-quality matchups every single night. For good teams in power conferences, that allows them to constantly remain at the forefront of the national conversation.
But it’s a difficult time for the teams that matter nationally but have to take a backseat to the big leagues. The only times we’ve heard about FAU, Memphis or James Madison this month has been when they lost. Even teams like Dayton are somewhat sliding under the radar. The Flyers keep winning, but they aren’t beating anybody particularly notable.
Gonzaga has been the poster child for this over the last two decades. The Zags generally play incredibly difficult nonconference schedules before falling out of the national consciousness until March rolls along. Sometimes, that allowed them to quietly climb the rankings as long as they kept winning. Whenever they lost, though, it made national headlines.
Now, something similar is happening to Saint Mary’s. The Gaels were practically written off on Dec. 1 after a loss to Boise State dropped them to 3-5 overall. Since then, Randy Bennett’s squad has only lost one game and has excellent metrics. Most importantly, the team is firmly back in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
This Rauf Report starts with a look at how Saint Mary’s has evolved over the last two months.
How legitimate is Saint Mary’s?
The Gaels are 12-1 in their last 13 games since that loss to Boise State, now sitting 15-6 overall. They’re now a top-15 team in Torvik and a top-25 team in both the NET and KenPom. Those are the metrics of a solid tournament team, and Saint Mary’s was most recently projected as a 9-seed by Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins.
This run includes a quality win over Colorado State on Dec. 9 and a resounding 17-point victory over San Francisco on the road last weekend. Those results indicate that this turnaround is legitimate.
I am not yet a believer.
Those two wins are the only games the Gaels have played against top-100 teams during this span, and it suffered a bad home loss to Missouri State on Dec. 23. Saint Mary’s has boosted its metrics by blowing out lesser competition more than anything else. In those 11 games against teams other than Colorado State and San Francisco, the Gaels are winning by an average of over 20 points per game. Those margins matter significantly in systems like the NET.
Besides the fact that Saint Mary’s is simply beating up on lesser teams, I’m not a believer for another reason. The Gaels have not changed how they play; they just aren’t being punished for mistakes like they were in the first month of the season.
That 3-5 start was heavily dictated by poor offensive play. Over the first eight games, the Gaels were 109th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 285th in effective field goal percentage and 229th in turnover rate, per Torvik. Saint Mary’s has been better since, but that offense still isn’t knocking the cover off the ball. During this 12-1 stretch against worse defenses, ranking 56th, 98th and 172nd nationally in those same categories. The raw shooting percentages and turnover numbers are also just slightly better — but not significant enough to erase those early season limitations in full.
This offense still ranks outside the top 80 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. The Gaels are making 32 percent of their 3-pointers, and they have the worst turnover rate of any Saint Mary’s team in a decade.
True challenges are few and far between in WCC play this season. Gonzaga will, once again, be the only real test, as both Santa Clara and San Francisco are wilting. A Feb. 3 trip to Spokane looms large, as that will tell us if this turnaround is legitimate or not. But for now, everything suggests it’s a byproduct of an easy part of the schedule and not a substantial shift in the quality of play.
What to make of Auburn
Auburn is in the unique position of being this season’s metrics darling. The Tigers are 16-3 after falling to Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday. Still, they rank in the top 5 in both KenPom and Torvik, as well as being a top-10 team in the NET.
Bruce Pearl’s squad passes the eye test. Johni Broome has become one of the best big men in the sport. This stable of talented guards wreak havoc defensively while producing on the other end. And the Tigers have one of the deepest benches in the country.
At the same time, it’s the end of January, and we still don’t know that Auburn is good. The Tigers are being treated like a great team because of their lofty metrics, but the on-court evidence is lacking.
The Tigers don’t have a Quad 1 victory — they’re the only top-25 team in the NET without one. They looked good in a season-opening loss to Baylor and this week against the Tide, but the other Q1 loss came at Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a good team, but Auburn needed to win that one.
None of Auburn’s more notable wins are aging well, either. Texas A&M (8-seed) and Ole Miss (11-seed) are the only wins the Tigers have over our latest projected NCAA Tournament field, and both teams are far from locks.
The good news for Auburn is that opportunities are coming. Six of its next nine games project to be Quad 1 opportunities, starting Saturday at Mississippi State. We’ll learn a lot about the Tigers in that stretch, especially if they can’t beat any of the teams projected as 7-seeds or better (Alabama on Feb. 7, Kentucky on Feb. 17, at Tennessee on Feb. 28).
Those will be the games that tell us if the Tigers are legitimate or not. It’s somewhat alarming that we’re still having to ask that question this late into the year.
Quiet concerns about Oklahoma
Oklahoma is facing a similar conundrum and starting to show legitimate cracks. The Sooners earned a top-10 ranking in the AP poll following a 10-0 start, eventually pushing their record to 13-1.
Since a home win over Iowa State on Jan. 6, however, the Sooners are just 2-3. Most recently, they suffered a 15-point home loss on Tuesday to a struggling Texas team.
This stretch of Big 12 play doesn’t include any bad losses (they don’t exist in that conference), but it points to Oklahoma’s lofty start being inflated. Indeed, most of the Sooners’ success has come against weak competition. They are 5-4 against the top two quadrants, and that victory over Iowa State is the only one OU has over a projected NCAA Tournament team.
Oklahoma’s defense has fallen off in those bigger games. The biggest culprit is that they haven’t forced as many turnovers and have been exposed for their lack of strength inside. The Sooners’ own shooting numbers have also dipped against better competition.
But just like Auburn, Oklahoma can change the narrative over the next few weeks. Eight of its remaining 12 games are currently Quad 1 opportunities, including three of the next four. Three of the next four also come against projected tournament teams (Texas Tech, Kansas State, BYU).
None of those three are in the Big 12’s elite tier, but KenPom projects the Sooners will go 2-1 in those games. Doing so would ease some of these concerns about this Oklahoma team. Anything less, though, and those concerns could go from a whisper to a rather loud statement.
Johnny Furphy’s rise
Kansas has needed one of its role players to step up for a while now. I’ve written about its offensive limitations in past Rauf Reports. The Jayhawks weren’t getting any kind of production outside its top four of Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, KJ Adams and Dajuan Harris Jr.
That appears to be changing.
Bill Self put freshman Johnny Furphy in the starting lineup on Jan. 13 against Oklahoma, hoping for an offensive spark that fellow freshman Elmarko Jackson wasn’t providing. Furphy has exploded over the past three games, including a 23-point, 11-rebound showing in Monday’s home victory over Cincinnati.
“He has settled into his role,” Self told reporters after the win over the Bearcats. “Johnny, more than anyone else, got us off to good starts. Offensively, he was terrific. He’s great in transition and can run. Two games in a row he has been our best rebounder, which is a bad sign for our other guys.”
Both Dickinson and McCullar are playing through injuries at the moment, so Furphy’s surge is coming at a critical time.
The 6-9, 202-pounder now leads the Big 12 in effective field goal and true shooting percentage while also ranking top-four in the league in offensive rating and turnover rate. He has cemented himself as a real factor in KU’s offensive pecking order, adding much-needed shooting and spacing. Furphy’s emergence gives the Jayhawks a larger margin for error and takes some of the scoring burden off of Harris.
This does not solve all of Kansas’ issues, though. Depth is still a major concern, as are dwindling rebounding numbers and inconsistent defense. But Furphy’s play is helping to mask a lot of that.
Ty Berry will determine how far Northwestern goes
Nothing is a lock with Northwestern basketball, but the Wildcats appear to be in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament for a second-consecutive season. Wednesday’s overtime victory over Illinois pushed Chris Collins’ squad to a 4-4 record in Quad 1 games. That tally includes three victories against Quad 1A opponents, or, the best of the best.
Boo Buie is the face of this program and the unquestioned leader and best player. Northwestern needs him to play at a high level if it’s going to have any success. But backcourt mate Ty Berry has emerged as an X-factor who elevates the Wildcats to where they can beat the best teams in the nation.
With Berry on the court, Northwestern’s adjusted offensive efficiency jumps to 116.2, per EvanMiya, and the Wildcats typically win when Berry plays well. When he doesn’t, they lose.
Stars become stars because they consistently play at a high level. Buie falls in that category; you generally know the kind of production you’re going to get from him on any given night.
That said, teams make runs in March because role players step up and become invaluable contributors. Berry has already stepped into that role for this Wildcats team. His play could determine Northwestern’s success over the final month and a half of the season as much as anyone.
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