The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the week of NCAA basketball, including a look at two highly-ranked teams that are struggling.
We are just over a week away from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealing its top 16 overall seeds. Naturally, the bracket preview has been an excellent indicator of where those top teams will end up on Selection Sunday.
Since its induction in 2017, only three teams included in the top 16 have fallen more than three seed lines between the reveal and Selection Sunday. Two of those happened during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, too.
This is the time when those top teams really start to separate themselves from the pack. We’re roughly a month and a half into conference play, and only the very best teams can survive the rigors of playing more true road games and consistently facing better competition.
The flip side? This is also when some highly regarded teams start to falter. We start this Rauf Report with a look at three such teams that have been struggling, beginning with Wisconsin.
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Wisconsin’s downward trend
The Badgers entered the season with mixed expectations. Soon, though, they forced everyone to take them seriously as a Big Ten contender thanks to a hot 13-3 start with convincing victories over Virginia, Marquette and Michigan State.
Wisconsin now enters Saturday’s showdown at Rutgers on a three-game losing streak. In truth, Greg Gard’s squad hasn’t been the same since losing at Penn State on Jan. 16. The Badgers are just 3-4 since then as defensive issues have taken hold, which I discussed in Monday’s Rauf Report. Opponents have excelled from 3-point range and have gotten into the lane at a high clip during this stretch, all while the Badgers have struggled on the glass.
“I don’t think we’re off track psychologically,” Gard told reporters Wednesday after the Michigan loss. “If you give any team confidence, let alone one that’s really searching for good things to happen, you’re asking for trouble.”
Sure, a loss to Purdue last weekend is included in this stretch, but it’s not as though Wisconsin has faced a murderer’s row lately. The Badgers’ record over the past seven games includes a 2-3 mark against teams ranked outside the KenPom top 50, with all three losses coming on the road.
The good news for Wisconsin is that it has a golden opportunity to get back on track. Only two projected NCAA Tournament teams remain on the schedule (Illinois, at Purdue), and the Badgers won’t face either of them until March. There’s a chance we look back at this stretch as a simple blip on the radar — but Wisconsin won’t turn things around without improving defensively and on the glass.
Creighton’s struggles are concerning
I don’t think Creighton’s current struggles can be swept under the rug. The Bluejays started the season looking like legitimate Final Four and national championship contenders, but since a shocking loss to UNLV on Dec. 13, this group hasn’t been the same.
Creighton has a losing record against KenPom top-100 opponents (5-6), including a 2-4 mark against top-50 competition. The Bluejays’ offense has gone from being elite to simply good. Coupling those issues with significant drop-offs defensively and on the boards, this team has lost its way.
Steven Ashworth received a lot of criticism for his individual struggles earlier in this stretch, yet the Utah State transfer has scored in double figures in seven consecutive games — all while the Bluejays continue to struggle. The defensive issues and rebounding concerns go well beyond him.
On a positive note, Creighton has been close in many of those losses. Four of the six came by five points or fewer, including two overtime defeats to Villanova and Providence.
“We’ve got to stick together,” head coach Greg McDermott said after losing to the Friars on Wednesday. “I still think we can have a special year with this group. We just have to find a way to finish.”
From a negative perspective, the Jays’ 8-1 start largely came against lesser competition. Only three of those first nine games were against top-100 teams. In their only top-50 contest, Creighton was blown out by Colorado State.
Creighton’s issues extend past their current two-game losing streak. This team simply hasn’t played up to expectations, and the Bluejays are running out of time to get it fixed. Seven of their final eight games are against top-100 competition, including six against top-50 teams.
Just how good is Utah State?
Speaking of Ashworth, his departure from Utah State helped fuel expectations that this would be a reset season in Logan. The Aggies lost essentially all their minutes from the 2022-23 campaign, and its former head coach, Ryan Odom, left for VCU.
USU tabbed Danny Sprinkle to take over the program after his successful tenure at Montana State. Sprinkle has put forth a Coach of the Year-type season, guiding this revamped roster to a 19-4 record. He also has the Aggies in a four-way tie for first in the Mountain West.
Sprinkle has clearly done a fantastic job. Both he and this Utah State team deserve all the attention and accolades they have received — mainly because nothing was expected from them this season. Nothing should take away from that.
On the other hand, looking at USU through the lens of an at-large NCAA Tournament team, I have some real concerns.
The Aggies played a soft nonconference schedule, and understandably so given the changes around the program. They dominated that early slate, with the lone loss coming in overtime at Bradley on Nov. 11. But now that Utah State has gotten into the meat of the Mountain West schedule, things aren’t as rosy.
Utah State is just 5-4 against top-100 opponents, including a 1-3 mark against top-50 teams. Those three losses have all come in the past month, and by an average margin of 13.7 points. The Aggies did pick up a five-point home win over Colorado State on Jan. 6, capitalizing on the Rams’ poor shooting night.
This team has not consistently defended well against high-level competition, though. Against the top 100, there have been significant drop-offs on both ends of the court.
Much of the Aggies’ offensive success against lesser teams comes from the ability to bully folks inside. Montana State transfer Great Osobor has emerged as a star after following Sprinkle to Logan, averaging 19.6 points and 9.8 rebounds in the team’s 17 victories against D1 competition. In those three recent losses, however, his numbers have dropped to 14.3 points and 6.3 rebounds. Those certainly aren’t bad numbers, but they indicate a drop in impact.
We’ll find out a lot about this Utah State team in the coming month. Four of its next eight games are against other top teams in the conference, starting with Saturday’s home game against Boise State. The next few games will have a major bearing on the conversation around the Aggies come Selection Sunday.
South Florida surprise
Another one of the country’s biggest surprises has been South Florida. The Bulls are currently alone in first place atop the American, one game ahead of both FAU and Charlotte.
USF hosted the 49ers on Tuesday in a first-place battle, and for a majority of the contest, the visitors looked like they were going to cruise. The 49ers led by as many as 17 points and held a double-digit lead for much of the second half. However, USF finished the game on a 22-6 run to pull off the comeback.
That victory over Charlotte is the latest in what has been a stunning turnaround for the Bulls under first-year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, who engineered a stunning turnaround at Kennesaw State before taking the USF job. The Bulls started the season by losing four of their first six games, including three against sub-100 opponents in Central Michigan, Maine and Hofstra. However, a 10-point loss to UMass on Dec. 2 gave Abdur-Rahim hope.
“I remember saying to my wife [after losing to UMass], I said, ‘We’ve got a chance to be pretty good,'” Abdur-Rahim told FOX 13 Sports. “We got a chance pretty good, and I guess I was right.”
South Florida upset Florida State in its next game, sparking the recent turnaround. The Bulls are now 14-1 in their last 15 games, with road victories over Memphis and North Texas during that span. Part of the upswing has been an increased emphasis on the 3-point line, which has paid dividends. USF is top-50 nationally in both 3-point shooting and 3-point defense during the last 10 games, per Torvik.
Maintaining first place in the AAC will be a challenge. South Florida still has games against FAU and SMU on its schedule, along with its return game against Charlotte. However, with the way the Bulls are playing, I don’t know if I’d bet against them.
Quinnipiac emerging as MAAC force
Only one team in the country currently leads its conference by at least three games: the Bobcats of Quinnipiac.
The Bobcats have not lost since the calendar flipped to 2024, building a three-game lead over Fairfield and Iona in the MAAC loss column. QU has the nation’s third-longest win streak at 10 games, trailing just one game behind both UConn and Saint Mary’s.
Quinnipiac is aiming to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history, a fate that seemed far off when former head coach Baker Dunleavy resigned in April. The school promoted Tom Pecora to head coach, and he has this team rolling. Still, he understands the job isn’t done despite the big lead atop the conference.
“I look at these kids, and it would be something for them,” Pecora said of making the NCAA Tournament. “It would be wonderful for this university, but we’re getting so far ahead of ourselves. Mid-major basketball tournaments are Russian roulette. You have one night where a couple of your guys don’t make shots and another team has a kid in the zone, then the game is over and there’s no at-large bids. I know it sounds like coach-speak, but we talk about one game at a time.”
The reasons behind Quinnipiac’s success, however, bode well for the Bobcats’ March plans. QU has defended at a high level and has a legitimate star in fifth-year guard Matt Balanc, who is averaging 18.3 points. His running mate, Savion Lewis, ranks third nationally in assist rate, and the Bobcat backcourt thrives playing at a quick pace (25th nationally in tempo, per KenPom).
At this point, it will take a massive collapse for Quinnipiac to not win the MAAC regular-season title, which would be a first for the program since joining the league a decade ago. That’s the first step for this group, but these Bobcats have the potential to make even more history before it’s all over.
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