We’re down to just eight teams in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s a look at the last games before the Final Four.
After an epic Sweet 16 Thursday, the games on Friday were defined by falling 1-seeds and no-doubt wins. Alabama and Houston are both gone, and the top four teams remaining by seed are Texas, Gonzaga, Kansas State and UConn.
With FAU being the only Cinderella team remaining, the potential for all four games this weekend to be close is high. Some games might have more scoring than others, and some might even be ugly, but there isn’t a game single game that looks like a blowout on paper — and that is exactly what is desired for games this late in the Tournament.
Let’s take a look at each of the Elite Eight games.
4) No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 6 Creighton
How they got here
San Diego State has the biggest victory in the NCAA Tournament so far, beating the No. 1 overall seed Alabama in one of the ugliest shooting games of this year’s Big Dance. Both teams shot under 40 percent from the floor, and it was the Aztecs’ eventual ability to get out in transition that gave them just enough to pull the upset. Creighton, on the other hand, played the only double-digit seed in the Sweet 16, beating 15-seed Princeton 86-75. The Blue Jays didn’t dominate as expected (and only scored five bench points), but their balance in the starting lineup was enough to wear down the Tigers.
What to expect
This game can go one of two ways: Either Creighton dominates in a game where their offense is very fun to watch, or San Diego State controls the pace and we get another ugly game of basketball. This matchup, unlike the other Elite Eight games, lacks a certain level of barnburner potential that would make it more pleasing to viewers.
How San Diego State can win
San Diego State is the last team remaining in the tournament where ugly games are a good thing. The Aztecs need to make this another game of sub-40 percent shooting, and their length will go a long way in accomplishing this. Creighton has a lot of height, but San Diego State can match that height with their length and strength. The Aztecs will also eventually need a good game from guard Matt Bradley, who has shot 13-of-33 (.394) through the first three rounds of the tournament.
How Creighton can win
Creighton can win this game if they remain patient on offense, limit their turnovers and search for great shots. SDSU does not have the scoring consistency to keep up if Creighton pushes the score to 75 or 80, so the Bluejays will want to make every possession count. They shot well against Princeton but struggled at times to get stops on the other end. That shouldn’t be as big an issue against the Aztecs; so as long as Ryan Nembhard, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman don’t rush into bad 3-pointers, the Bluejays should be in a good spot.
Key Matchup: Nathan Mensah vs. Ryan Kalkbrenner
This matchup is the key to San Diego State’s success defensively. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner shoots over 73 percent from 2-point range and has only shot under 50 percent in one game all year — when the 7-1 center went 4-of-10 in the second round against Baylor. Nathan Mensah for SDSU is one of the best rim protectors in the country with a top-15 block rate. Mensah had five blocks against Alabama, and he has had multiple blocks in over half of his games this season. If he can alter Kalkbrenner’s shots enough early, it will allow the Aztec backcourt to focus on their own assignments, rather than try to swipe at the ball when the Bluejays throw it inside. In last year’s first-round game between these two teams, Mensah went scoreless and fouled out after logging just 13 minutes, while Kalkbrenner went for 16 and 10 in the Bluejays’ overtime win.
3) No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Miami
How they got here
Of the teams left standing, Texas might have had the most leisurely stroll to the Elite Eight. Sure, UConn has dominated second halves, but Texas has never had a game that felt in doubt — even in the first half. Their 83-71 victory over Xavier is evidence of that, as the lead had ballooned to 24 points before Xavier made an ultimately meaningless push at the end. Miami nearly lost their first-round game, but the Hurricanes have responded by dispatching both Indiana and Houston convincingly. Most impressive about Miami’s run is that the ‘Canes have yet to be outdone on the boards, despite their lack of height down low.
What to expect
This game will be won and lost in the backcourt, and both teams have to feel really good about that. Nijel Pack has come up huge for Miami in all three games, and Isaiah Wong is always a threat to take over. Texas has three guards who can all score 20 if needed, and with the potential loss of Dylan Disu for this game, the backcourt will be needed more than ever. The game should be played at a great tempo. If Miami’s defense can continue to show up, the final score should be relatively close.
How Texas can win
Texas has to keep Miami off the glass and limit their turnovers. On Friday night, Miami hammered Houston over and over in transition, and the momentum eventually snowballed. Because the ‘Canes are a great offensive rebounding team, Texas’ stout defense won’t matter unless they can limit the Hurricanes to one shot per possession. If they can, the Longhorns should roll.
How Miami can win
Miami’s defense has recently shown up in ways it hadn’t all season, and that makes the team incredibly dangerous. The Hurricanes have done it in different ways in each game, but they have yet to allow over 50 percent from 2-point range in the NCAA Tournament, and their ability to consistently generate seven steals per game has led to a lot of offensive opportunities. They will need similar success against a tough Texas defense that can be extremely difficult to score on in a half-court set.
Key Matchup: Isaiah Wong vs. Marcus Carr
Texas’ Marcus Carr and Miami’s Isaiah Wong are two of the best guards in the country. However, both have had a game or two in this tournament where they did not live up to their potential. Wong scored just five points against Drake, and Carr’s limited offensive success against Penn State helped keep the game closer than it should have been. If one of these players can beat the other on both ends of the floor, that could be the deciding factor in this one.
2) No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic
How they got here
Markquis Nowell continues to be the best player in the NCAA Tournament, adding a 20-point, 19-assist performance to his resume in the Wildcats’ 98-93 overtime victory against Michigan State on Thursday. Keyontae Johnson also had a great game, shooting 9-of-14 from 2-point range and scoring a team-high 22 points. The Owls of FAU proved that they belong in the Elite Eight by continuing to score at a high rate throughout the second half against perhaps the most physical team in the country in Tennessee. FAU outrebounded the Volunteers 40-36 and took advantage at the stripe, hitting 12 of their 16 free throws.
What to expect
This game should be an incredibly fun game between two teams that are easy to root for. FAU is obviously the Cinderella story of this tournament despite being a 9-seed, and Kansas State’s instant success under first-year head coach Jerome Tang has been beyond what anyone expected. Both teams are small with the exception of their centers, and their styles are both pleasing to watch as well.
How Kansas State can win
Get the ball in Nowell’s hands and let him cook. The players around the 5-8 point guard are all capable of getting open and cutting to the rim, and Nowell has the innate ability to place the ball exactly where his teammates need it. Defensively, the Wildcats will need to make sure they run the Owls off the line as much as possible. Because Kansas State doesn’t love to shoot a ton of 3s, they will need to limit the damage FAU can do from deep. That will be difficult considering the Owls are 35th nationally in 3-point attempt rate and 45th in 3-point percentage.
How Florida Atlantic can win
For the Owls, the key in this one will be to make sure Vladislav Goldin is in position to defend shots at the rim on every possession he plays. Most of Nowell’s assists came on layups and dunks, and Goldin is a 7-1 center with a top-100 block rate. If you take away the easy buckets from Kansas State, they will be forced to shoot more jumpers, something they are not necessarily great at. On the other end of the floor, FAU will need to get offensive rebounds as much as possible, considering the Wildcats are very good at contesting shots. The team’s shooting percentage is likely to dip a bit, but if Goldin, Johnell Davis and the rest of the team can get second-chance opportunities, they have a good chance of winning.
Key Matchup: Johnell Davis vs Keyontae Johnson
This game has the potential to turn into a game of H.O.R.S.E. between wings Johnell Davis and Keyontae Johnson. Both players fill the ‘small-ball 4’ role for their teams, and both make shots at a high rate. Johnson has the advantage of having the best point guard in the tournament passing him the ball, but Davis has been really good at creating his own shots. If these two get hot early, this matchup will be a real treat.
1) No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Connecticut
How they got here
Gonzaga dug themselves out of another double-digit hole, this time a 13-point halftime deficit, to beat a tough UCLA team on one of the most iconic shots of the tournament — a logo 3-pointer from Julian Strawther with seven seconds left in the game. For as poorly as the team played on defense in the first half, Mark Few made some adjustments by playing Hunter Sallis and Malachi Smith heavily in the second half and the Zags held UCLA to just 30 second-half points en route to a 79-76 win. UConn had another dominant victory, and perhaps the most complete victory of the tournament for the Huskies, beating Arkansas by 23. There was no slow start for the Huskies, who shot 9-of-20 from deep and held Arkansas to just 32 percent from the floor.
What to expect
This one has the potential to be another classic March Madness game, with both teams featuring high-caliber offenses and elite frontcourts. Gonzaga likes to push the pace more than UConn does, but the Huskies have the personnel to match a high tempo. The game also has the potential to break open in the first 10 minutes if the Zags or Huskies have slow offensive starts. After Gonzaga came out slow in the first three games, it is difficult to imagine them doing so for a fourth-straight game — especially with a Final Four berth on the line.
How Gonzaga can win
Gonzaga’s advantage starts with their ability to get out in transition and create easy looks for their guards, as well as for Drew Timme. The Zags’ defense needs to be as good, if not better, than it was in the second half against UCLA. To do so, they need to communicate on rotations to make sure UConn’s shooters don’t get left open. If Gonzaga can force tough shots, the defense will need to sell out to prevent UConn’s bigs from dominating the glass. The Zags outrebounded the Bruins 34-11 in the second half of their Sweet 16 game, but UConn has much better players on the boards than UCLA had available. Gonzaga’s offense should work itself out as long as the guards can start hitting 3s early, but the defense must rise to the occasion as well.
How UConn can win
The primary decision that Dan Hurley will have to make against Gonzaga is figuring out how to play Drew Timme defensively. Against Arkansas and Saint Mary’s, Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan had a huge advantage over their direct matchups — but that won’t exist against Timme, one of the best low-post scorers in the country. The Huskies will want to at least threaten a double-team every time Timme touches the ball; they need to make someone else beat them. Offensively, UConn will need to use screens to get the matchups they want and then attack accordingly. The Zags have been terrible all season defending athletic guards off screens, and UConn can use this to their advantage to attack the basket or create space for their shooters.
Key Matchup: Andre Jackson vs. Julian Strawther
The most important player on the floor for Gonzaga in this game is Julian Strawther. He not only made the game-winning shot in the game against UCLA, but his scoring (or lack thereof) determines whether or not Gonzaga is at its best offensively. Drew Timme is about as consistent a scoring threat as they come, but Strawther’s inconsistency has hurt the Zags multiple times this season. UConn’s Andre Jackson seems tailor-made to make life miserable for Strawther. The 6-6 guard is willing to get down and dirty defensively, and he rebounds at a high rate. If Jackson can shut down Strawther and hold him to 10 points or fewer, UConn wins this game. If he can’t, the Zags could be heading to Houston.