The NFL season has officially ended, meaning that basketball has taken center stage — and we at Heat Check CBB aim to be your go-to source for all things college hoops until a champion cuts the nets on the first Monday of April. Thus, we’re launching a new weekly column: the Saturday Recap with Heat Check CBB. Every Sunday, we’ll provide breakdowns of the biggest games and storylines from the weekend.
Saturday’s slate featured a game of the year candidate in the Big 12, a pivotal development in the ACC title race, Mountain West drama, fireworks in Lexington, and more.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
Houston prevails at Baylor, proves its spot among the nation’s elite
A quiet noon window meant all eyes would be on Waco. Baylor hosted Houston in the lone Top 25 matchup of the early hour. But while the contest occurred in the Bears’ new arena, the Coogs looked like the ones enjoying the comforts of home. They raced out to a 29-12 lead in the first 12 minutes, using physicality and aggressiveness to stymie their opponent. Behind 11 forced turnovers and Yeoman’s work from Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts, Houston took a 41-25 advantage into the break.
The second half, however, saw fortunes flip. Baylor cut into the lead behind a masterful performance from freshman Ja’Kobe Walter. The 6-5 wing has garnered praise for his knockdown shooting, which he showcases on the move and in spot-ups. But he also hit a couple of pull-up jumpers on Saturday, displaying the offensive upside that will land him in the lottery of the upcoming draft.
Walter’s hot hand, plus strong halves from RayJ Dennis and Jalen Bridges, helped Baylor trim the deficit to three with under five minutes to go. Throw in some timely defensive plays from Jayden Nunn, and the Bears positioned themselves to steal the game down the stretch.
What incredible timing, instincts and hustle from Nunn on that chase-down block. The Bears’ defense has been scrutinized all season, but they excelled in crunch time yesterday. (Houston shot just 33.3 percent from the field in the second half.)
Indeed, Baylor’s two-way efforts were enough to send the game to overtime (though not without theatrics). But Houston showed why it’s a legitimate title contender in the extra period. The Coogs ripped off an 11-1 run to seal the contest and notch an 82-76 victory.
Now, it might be time to mention Houston alongside Purdue and UConn as the nation’s elite teams. The Coogs rank first in T-Rank and first in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. And while their defense forms the bedrock of their identity, their offense also has plenty of firepower. The perimeter trio of Shead, LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp stacks up with any in the country. Roberts has established himself as a reliable post presence, and Joseph Tugler ensures a minimal drop-off when he comes off the pine.
Collectively, the roster has erased any doubt that it belongs in the Big 12. It’s no fluke that Houston is alone at the top of the standings and ready to ascend even higher come March. —Riley Davis
Wake Forest gets marquee win amid court-storming controversy
Wake Forest may finally have the leg up on its heated rival Joe Lunardi. In front of a sold-out crowd, the Deacs made a statement against the Duke Blue Devils, defeating them 83-79. The victory gave Wake a much-needed Quad 1 win (just the third of the Steve Forbes era, as Heat Check CBB’s Brian Rauf noted last week).
Junior guard Hunter Sallis eviscerated the Duke defense with his pick-and-roll proficiency, knifing into the paint, hitting contested shots and connecting on five 3-pointers. Tyrese Proctor, the Devils’ top perimeter defender, simply could not check him.
The contest marked the latest instance of offensive brilliance from Wake, as it scored over 1.2 points per possession for the fifth time in league play. More fascinating, the Deacs don’t run anything that elaborate. Instead, they just deploy a cadre of perimeter players who can create for themselves and teammates. When they’re on, they’re a joy to watch.
Nevertheless, the on-court results were overshadowed by the post-game events. With 0.1 seconds still left on the game clock, Wake Forest students stormed the court and injured Duke forward Kyle Filipowski in the process. Numerous dissections of the court storm soon flooded X (Twitter) feeds, as sports media and fans alike tried to make sense of the occurrence. Jon Scheyer and Filipowski both addressed it in their post-game interviews, as well.
At Heat Check CBB, we’ll spare you the hot takes and opt for a rational one instead: Court storms will continue to happen. They’re an integral part of our niche sport, and they add to the mystique that fans desire to maintain. That said, this was a massive misstep by Wake’s security that led to a horrible outcome for a player. Ensuring players safely exit the court before a court storm should be a requirement…and one that shouldn’t be too difficult to carry out. —Riley Davis
New Mexico stunned at home, bringing tournament profile into question
The Mountain West has enjoyed a breakout season this year thanks in large part to its ability to avoid bad losses. Every MWC squad had a winning record in nonconference play and the primary six at-large contenders have been able to take care of business against weaker competition.
That is, of course, up until New Mexico was stunned at home by lowly Air Force Saturday afternoon. The 78-77 defeat, cemented by Rytis Petraitis’ 3-point dagger with seven seconds remaining, ended a perfect 43-0 record in Quad-4 games by the league’s six at-large contenders. In fact, after starting the season 15-0 against Quads 3 and 4, UNM has now dropped its two most recent matchups in these quadrants, also falling to UNLV at home on Feb. 10.
Needless to say, things aren’t trending in the right direction right now for a proud Lobos program fighting for its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2014. Last year’s group also appeared poised to end the drought with an 18-2 start to the season before the wheels fell off late thanks to a 2-6 February.
New Mexico is now 4-4 over its last eight games, and while the Lobos began Saturday as a projected 9-seed per Bracket Matrix, an eyebrow-raising loss to a Falcons squad that ranks sub-250 in every metric and had only one conference win entering the weekend could change that estimation.
“Disappointing one,” New Mexico head coach Richard Pitino said after the loss. “We knew it was a missed opportunity and we’re going to have to find a way to rebound from it.”
It doesn’t get much easier from here for the Lobos. At 9-6 in MWC play, New Mexico is hoping to hang on to the No. 5 seed for the Mountain West tournament and earn a first-round bye in Vegas. The Lobos finish the regular season at Boise State, vs. Fresno State and at Utah State, so Pitino’s squad needs to get right quickly to avoid feeling bubbly on Selection Sunday. —Eli Boettger
Offensive eRUPPtion
Up-and-down weeks for Kentucky and Alabama led to a high-stakes matchup in Rupp Arena on Saturday. The Wildcats entered the game fresh off a heartbreaking loss at LSU, needing a win to climb back into the SEC race. The Tide, meanwhile, narrowly escaped a feisty Florida team at home and had a chance to claim sole possession of first place in the conference.
The contest delivered an enthralling display of ball movement and shot-making (a stark contrast to the North Carolina-Virginia showdown that aired at the same hour). The two teams traded blows in the first half, with Alabama’s Mark Sears and Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham displaying flairs for the dramatic.
However, Kentucky used a 20-2 run in the first half’s final 10 minutes that put it ahead for good. Freshman wing Justin Edwards broke out in emphatic fashion, shooting 10-for-10 from the field (4-for-4 from 3) and scoring a career-high 28 points. In addition to his 3-point shooting, he displayed strength around the basket, finishing through contact whenever he got into the paint. Fellow rookie Zvonimir Ivišić contributed 18 points and four blocks, his highest in both categories since his season debut on Jan. 20th. The result was a 117-95 victory for the Cats.
For Alabama, it goes back to the drawing board to fix its porous defense. Only two times this season have the Tide held power conference opponents under a point per possession — and both of those instances occurred at home. Moreover, they’ve surrendered an average of 1.21 points per possession over their past five contests.
Sure, Alabama’s offense is historically good. But if it wants a different result from last season’s NCAA Tournament, it has to improve at least marginally on the defensive end. —Riley Davis