March Madness 2024: Identifying five teams most likely to make a Cinderella run

Which lower seeds can pick up multiple victories during March Madness to become this season’s Cinderella team?

Upsets are woven into the fabric of the NCAA Tournament as the single-elimination format lends itself to a wider variance of unexpected results. But there is a difference between teams that are capable of pulling off a singular upset and those capable of going on a Cinderella run.

Take last season’s East Region. Fairleigh Dickinson, a 16-seed, was able to pull a historic upset over Purdue because of the way that matchup worked in favor of the Knights. However, 9-seed FAU was able to capture some magic and make it all the way to the Final Four.

The Owls represent a string of consecutive tournaments with a true Cinderella. The 2022 tournament had 15-seed Saint Peter’s playing in the Elite Eight. The 2021 tournament had 12-seed Oregon State in the Elite Eight and 11-seed UCLA in the Final Four.

Who are the teams seeded in the bottom half of their region (9-seed or below) that are capable of making a second-weekend appearance? Here are the five that are most likely.

More tournament coverage:

—March Madness: The only 6 championship contenders
—Region Previews: South | Midwest | West | East

James Madison Dukes

JMU is sure to be among everyone’s favorite upset picks in the first round, and rightfully so. The Dukes have won 30 games this season, beat Michigan State in East Lansing and have only lost to two teams all season. They have the size to match up with Wisconsin, high-level guard play, good depth, and are one of the most experienced teams in the country.

People have been scared away from trendy underdogs in past seasons, yet there’s a reason why so many people have confidence in James Madison.

There’s also this: Wisconsin is 6-9 in its last 15 games and is 1-5 against NCAA Tournament teams during that stretch. It just so happens that the one victory was over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament when the Boilermakers shot 31.2 percent from 3-point range.

Duke would be JMU’s likely second-round opponent and the Blue Devils — despite their lofty metrics — are just 5-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and have struggled against the better teams on their schedule.

Oh, and did I mention that James Madison has the longest active win streak in the country? I think there’s a great chance the Dukes keep that rolling to the Sweet 16.