Sixteen spots in the second weekend are on the line this weekend. We take a look at all the second-round games and rank them from worst to best.
Day 5 of the NCAA Tournament is here, and the event is already halfway over in terms of total games. The season has ended for 36 teams, but the 32 others are still very much alive. We have had overtimes, controversial calls, and huge upsets galore, and several players have had career-defining games.
Now, that 32-team group will be cut to just 16. Let’s take a look at how all 16 second-round games stack up.
More tournament coverage:
—March Madness: The only 6 championship contenders | 5 Cinderellas to watch
—Region Previews: South | Midwest | West | East
1 — No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Michigan State (Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
This probably should have been the standalone game on Saturday afternoon. It features the closest opening line of the day, two of the premier college basketball programs in the nation, and one of the best individual matchups we could have asked for in Tyson Walker vs. RJ Davis. Tom Izzo has seemingly done it once again — elevate a team that underperformed all season to hit its stride in March — and Michigan State has the talent to give UNC a run. Both teams handled business in the first game, winning by a combined 46 points, but this one should go down to the wire.
2 — No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (Saturday, 3:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Both Kansas and Gonzaga began their games in much the same way: dominating their inferior opponents and opening up 20-point leads. The difference between the two is that Gonzaga’s bench, while shallow, delivered in a big way and the Zags were able to keep trucking, while Kansas’ six-man rotation appeared to succumb to Samford’s “Bucky Ball” pressure and allowed the Bulldogs to claw back to within a point before a controversial foul call helped secure the win for the Jayhawks. It was clear at the beginning of the season that Kansas and Gonzaga had depth issues. This game will be a huge test of whether Gonzaga’s bench has truly found its footing and if Kansas can survive the loss of Kevin McCullar against top competition.
3 — No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon (Sunday, 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS)
This game has some serious potential to be the second-biggest barnburner of the tournament (nothing is touching Colorado’s 103-100 win over Florida). Alabama takes “all gas no brakes” to a whole new level with the country’s third-best offense and 117th-best defense, per KenPom. They will take on a GCU team that might be more athletic than the Tide and has an absolute killer in Tyon Grant-Foster. If GCU can play defense with the same intensity that it did against Saint Mary’s, expect the Lopes to keep it close enough to be in a position to win in the closing stretch.
4 — No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 11 Oregon (Saturday, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS)
Heading into the Pac-12 Tournament, this matchup would have been viewed as a potential blowout that would likely find itself at the bottom of this list. However, Dana Altman has shown why many view him as one of the best coaches in the country, and the Oregon Ducks look like a completely different team right now, beating three NCAA Tournament teams in a row by at least three possessions. The only concern Ducks fans should have is that the team may struggle to defend the elite shooting of Creighton. The Bluejays love to shoot the 3-ball, and they make it at a top-40 clip. Oregon, on the other hand, has been below average from beyond the arc this season, and shot below its season average of 33.8 percent in the first four games of the five-game win streak.
5 — No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 6 Clemson (Sunday, 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
In a weekend defined by elite big man matchups, the pending bout between Clemson’s PJ Hall and Baylor’s Yves Missi is as exciting as any. Both centers are excellent rim protectors, who have been elite rebounders within their team’s system. Missi is aggressive on the offensive boards while Hall is fantastic at preventing second chance opportunities. Outside of this individual battle, the shotmakers that both teams have should make for back-and-forth affair that could come down to the final bucket.
6 — No. 4 Duke vs. No. 12 James Madison (Sunday, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
It was the perfect recipe for an upset on Friday — the weakest 5-seed in Wisconsin against the best 12-seed in James Madison. The Dukes controlled the game from tip to buzzer and now they get to face Duke in the second round. The Blue Devils have had an up-and-down season, but are generally a vulnerable team that struggled to put Vermont away in their first-round game. Unlike some of the other Cinderellas, this is who James Madison is and has been all season, and they should give Duke a challenge in the battle for a Sweet 16 spot. Fortunately for the Blue Devils, their freshman guard Jared McCain did not shrink under the lights, and Duke protected the ball far better than Wisconsin did Friday.
7 — No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 10 Colorado (Sunday, 12:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Like Oregon, Colorado is a Pac-12 team that is playing its best basketball at the perfect time. The intrigue in this matchup comes in the form of the toughness that both coaches have made instilled in their teams’ identities. Tyler Kolek looked fully healthy in Marquette’s win over Western Kentucky, and Tad Boyle’s squad has been making life miserable for opposing shooters. Both teams are top 20 in effective field goal percentage, so this game should feature some elite shotmaking, much like what was seen at the end of the Colorado-Florida game.
8 — No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Texas (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
The likelihood that this game isn’t at least fun is relatively low compared to the rest of the Saturday slate. For starters, it features two of top scoring guards in the country in Texas’ Max Abmas and Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht. It also features the two defenses that gave up the fewest points in Thursday’s first-round games. This sets up a fun little game of unstoppable force vs. immovable object that will become the game within the game. The only reason that this game is so low is the blowout potential it carries. Texas is just 4-9 vs the NCAA Tournament field this season, and their its losses have come by an average of 12.3 points.
9 — No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 7 Dayton (Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
There is really only one matchup in this game that promises to be elite: Arizona’s Oumar Ballo vs. Dayton’s Daron Holmes II. This battle of the big men isn’t enough to sway the result of the game by itself, but how Arizona chooses to defend Holmes could determine what opportunities open up for his teammates. Ballo was part of the Pac-12’s All-Defensive Team, and Tommy Lloyd could choose to trust him one-on-one with Holmes and allow the guards to shut down Kobe Elvis and Nate Santos. But Holmes’ ability to stretch the floor could throw a wrench in that plan — although this was the theory on paper for Utah, and we all saw how that worked out. For Arizona’s offense, Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell can handle Dayton’s inevitable zone looks, which should help Arizona score a ton and put this one away early.
10 — No. 1 Houston vs. No. 9 Texas A&M (Sunday, 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)
This might be the most interesting matchup from an offensive perspective on the entire slate. Neither Houston nor Texas A&M shoots the ball particularly well, but they both take incredible care of the basketball and attack the offensive boards with reckless abandon. This elite rebounding is accomplished without a single player over 6-8 earning more than 10 minutes per game. Instead of elite bigs, the matchup features some of the best guards in the country in Houston’s Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer and Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford. The only thing keeping this game from being top 10 is the on-paper gap between the two teams and the possibility that Houston controls the entire game, which would lead to some ugly (yet effective) basketball.
11 — No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Washington State (Saturday, 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
This is one defensive battle that has some fun potential, but it really depends on each team’s questionable offense. Both teams feature a breakout freshman — Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic and Washington State’s Myles Rice — on offenses that will need them to break the stigma that freshmen carry in March. Iowa State is a clear step or two above Washington State on paper; but so was Arizona, and the Cougars swept them in the Pac-12 regular season. Ultimately, this could be an intriguing game, but it could also be a minor blowout. Both results don’t change the fact that it is bound to be one of the lower-scoring matchups of the second round.
12 — No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 13 Yale (Sunday, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Mountain West has just two teams left in the dance. San Diego State may have finished fifth in the Mountain West standings, but it has been one of the more consistent teams in the conference, losing just one game to a team outside the NCAA Tournament field (a road game against fourth-place UNLV). The Aztecs also have a lot of talent and experience gained from last year’s Final Four run. On the other side of the floor, Yale is coming off a huge comeback victory over Auburn, one that took a huge amount of effort. If Yale can continue playing at that level, SDSU is not a team that puts many teams away. However, the potential that they fall flat in the follow-up game still exists.
13 — No. 1 UConn vs. No. 9 Northwestern (Sunday, 7:45 p.m. ET, truTV)
The ending of regulation in the Northwestern vs, Florida Atlantic game provided some of the best moments in the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, it became quite clear that whoever won this game would be vastly outmatched on paper by the looming UConn Huskies. UConn, to its credit, avoided any sort of 1-seed lull and opened up a 33-point halftime lead over Stetson, ultimately winning the game by 39. In any other situation, Northwestern’s Boo Buie could carry his team on a decent March run, but this is likely the end of the road for the Wildcats.
14 — No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 8 Utah State (Sunday, 2:40 p.m. ET, CBS)
Utah State delivered a huge win for the Mountain West, beating TCU down in its first-round game. The MWC regular season champions will now have the herculean task of taking on Purdue if the Aggies want to earn a spot in the second weekend. It would be easy to call Zach Edey vs. Great Osobor the most important matchup in the game, but given the obvious mismatch in Edey’s favor, this game might come down to Braden Smith and Darius Brown at the point guard spot. Whichever guard can be the most effective as a playmaker could win the game for their team.
15 — No. 11 NC State vs. No. 14 Oakland (Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS)
Both NC State and Oakland have had incredible March runs and looked great in huge first-round upsets. By seeding, this appears to be a close game. The issue is that Cinderella runs don’t last forever, and at least one of these teams is bound to come crashing down to Earth on Saturday. The game doesn’t even project to be that close — KenPom has this game projected as the second widest margin of the day — especially if Oakland’s contested shot-making regresses to the mean. This game features two of the three lowest-seeded teams playing on Saturday, and has huge “snoozefest” potential if the magic dies.
16. No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 11 Duquesne (Saturday, 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)
Much like the NC State vs. Oakland game, this matchup features another Cinderella that is bound to cool off at some point. Unlike the teams in the aforementioned matchup, its opponent is a 3-seed that is playing its best basketball of the season. Illinois has four players that can beat you on any given night, and while Duquesne’s defense has been awesome all season, it might not have the horses to check all four players effectively. On the other end, the Dukes are especially questionable, which has led to a 5-10 record in games where they give up 70 or more points (1-5 when their opponents score 75). Illinois’ offensive firepower has led to 70 points in all but 3 games this season, a trend that isn’t likely to end on Saturday. If they can avoid a hot shooting night from the Dukes, the Illini should make easy work of their second-round matchup.