The NCAA Tournament doesn’t just deliver buzzer-beaters, upsets, and viral moments from coaches and players.
It also provides a glimpse at how NBA prospects perform under the brightest lights in high-pressure situations. Thus, the Big Dance looms large for athletes who want to cement their college legacies and dazzle in front of professional scouts.
Now, most NBA organizations no longer let the tournament sway them too much if they hold a top 10 picks. (Think Derrick Williams parlaying an incredible tournament run into a No. 2 selection, for example.) But we’ve still seen names like Jordan Hawkins, Christian Braun and Quentin Grimes use the tourney to elevate their stock in recent years.
Who are the must-watch NBA hopefuls for this year?
More tournament coverage:
—March Madness: Championship contenders | Cinderellas to watch | Important players
—Tournament Index: Round-by-round projections, Cinderellas, Dark Horses, more
—Region Previews: South | Midwest | West | East
Top 10 potential
Let’s start with top-10 prospects, where Colorado’s Cody Williams and UConn’s Stephon Castle aim to finish their freshmen seasons strongly. Both rookies fit the ‘versatile wing’ archetype that every NBA team wants, combining on-ball skills and defensive upside with elite measurables.
Williams, the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, is among my favorite college prospects. He entered college as an offensive enigma but has largely answered the bell on that end. His greatest strength is his ability to get to the basket, where he showcases his athleticism by elevating over defenders (74.4 field goal percentage at the rim, per Hoop-Math).
However, Williams also displays good touch in his in-between game and has converted 16 of his 38 3-point attempts (42.1%). It’s a small sample, but long-range shooting was his biggest question going into the year, so it’s an encouraging development nonetheless. Had he not dealt with injuries all season (11 missed games), Williams might be generating even more buzz.
Castle has also battled ailments in Year 1 but still found ways to impact a veteran-laden UConn team. At worst, the 6-6 wing projects as a malleable piece that can fit into any lineup thanks to his defensive instincts, secondary playmaking (five assists or more in five Big East games), and explosiveness in the open court. If he strings his flashes of offensive brilliance — like his career-high 21 points against Seton Hall — into consistent production, he could emerge as the best player in this draft.
Turning to the guards, one player whose offense should have no issue translating to the NBA is Kentucky freshman Rob Dillingham. Simply put, if you haven’t watched Dillingham yet, where have you been? The 6-3 dynamo boasts the best dribble package in the sport and gets wherever he wants because of his elite footwork and wiggle. A true three-level scorer, he’s the class’ most likely candidate to drop 60 points in an NBA game one day.
His backcourt mate Reed Sheppard has also seen his stock skyrocket. The 6-3 point guard is a jack of all trades and a master of several. For starters, he’s a pure — and I mean pure — shooter. Sheppard leads in the country in 3-point percentage, canning 74 of his 141 attempts (52.5%). A good team defender, he also displays a knack for splash plays, ranking first in the SEC and 10th nationally in steal rate.
Finally, Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter will hope to rebound after an uneven stretch of Big 12 play. The 6-5 guard looked every part of a top-five pick in nonconference play, knocking down 41.3 percent of his triples on 5.8 attempts per game. However, that number plummeted to 29.1 percent in league games. In addition, he hasn’t shown enough shot-creation or playmaking (49 assists to 45 turnovers) to justify his once-vaunted status.
Lottery-level talent
Two big men will aim to prove themselves worthy of a lottery selection: UConn’s Donovan Clingan and Baylor’s Yves Missi. Despite not taking the offensive leap many expected, Clingan is a special defensive prospect. A space eater with an impressive 7-7 wingspan, he shined this season as one of the nation’s premier rim protectors (third nationally in defensive BPR, per EvanMiya; 11th in block rate). Clingan isn’t the springiest athlete, but he should quickly find a role as a drop-coverage big.
Missi, on the other hand, is more of a project, but he boasts tantalizing upside. In a handful of contests, the 7-foot freshman bullied opposing big men. Take his 17-point outing against Kansas on March 2, for example. Missi asserted his will in the middle of the floor and around the rim.
Other games have been a different story. In Baylor’s Feb. 24 overtime loss to Houston, he disappeared for stretches, finishing with two points and four turnovers in 33 minutes. Nonetheless, he profiles as a rim-runner with the potential to expand his offensive game. Those two factors should keep him from falling past pick No. 14.
Then, there are two perimeter-oriented bigs worth keeping an eye on. Duke’s Kyle Filipowski has a well-rounded offensive game, similar to NBA players Santi Aldama and Christian Wood. He can attack the basket off of spot-ups, knock down perimeter jumpers and score in the post. Filipowiski can also operate as a playmaking hub. The only question for him is finding the right fit defensively. Last season, when he had Dereck Lively cleaning up mistakes, he did an excellent job guarding 4s (first in the ACC in defensive win shares). Fast forward a year later, though, and Flip has shown some cracks while playing most of his minutes at the 5.
Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II possesses similar offensive gifts to Filipowski with fewer defensive questions. The 6-10 junior functions as the Flyers’ anchor, with 213 career blocks and countless altered shots. On the other end, Holmes is a dominant roll-man with above-the-rim athleticism (67 dunks this year). He has also expanded his game in Year 3, showing an ability to put the ball on the deck while posting career highs in 3-point percentage and assist rate. Mock drafts peg him in the late first/early second (31st on the Athletic, 33rd on the Ringer, 27th on No Ceilings), but the tourney could change that in a hurry.
Finally, the last prospect we’ll cover is the likely National Player of the Year runner-up, Dalton Knecht of Tennessee. The former Northern Colorado standout has blossomed into a walking bucket in Knoxville. He’s deadly as a movement shooter, maintaining his balance and pure shot mechanics as he runs off of screens. Additionally, he’s unguardable in the mid-post, thanks to his abilities to elevate over defenders and nail contested jumpers.
But Knecht’s willingness to attack the basket might be his most underrated skill. While less flashy than his circus shots, his rim pressure is no less important. In one of his top performances against North Carolina, Knecht shot 9-for-9 at the rim, using his size and body control to absorb contact and finish over defenders.
Combine his offensive game with plus athleticism, and Knecht might not just land in the lottery — he might go in the top 10.