The 2024 NCAA Tournament is upon us. Here are some statistical trends to watch for in each of the 32 first-round matchups.
The NCAA Tournament is the definition of unpredictable. The volatility of the event, particularly on the opening weekend, makes it so unique. Nobody ever knows what will happen, and that is epitomized by the ridiculously long odds of anyone ever achieving the perfect bracket: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.
Don’t worry; that’s the least important number we’re about to talk about. Of course, basketball is not played on a spreadsheet. Every matchup is different, every game can go any direction, and the unpredictability is impossible to, well, predict. With that said, though, numbers can serve as a tool to indicate critical areas to watch in each matchup.
Is there a great 3-point shooting underdog facing a higher seed that gives up looks from deep? How about a unit that struggles with turnovers matched up against a team that presses? Chaos will undoubtedly ensue during the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Still, there are always trends, whether obvious or hidden in the data, that can aid in previewing a matchup. (Also, the answer to those questions was ‘yes.’)
With the field now selected and the should-be national holiday nearly upon us, let’s dissect first-round matchups with some vital statistical trends to monitor.
More tournament coverage:
—March Madness: Championship contenders | Cinderellas to watch | Important players
—Tournament Index: Round-by-round projections, Cinderellas, Dark Horses, more
—Region Previews: South | Midwest | West | East
East Regional
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson
With very few flaws in their statistical profile, UConn is the No. 1 overall seed for good reason. The Huskies boast the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and are a top-15 unit on the other end. Two of their losses came without either Stephon Castle or Donovan Clingan, and the roster is healthy for the NCAA Tournament. It’s no wonder the Huskies are favorites to repeat.
Essentially, the only way to compete with the Huskies this season has been to limit their interior dominance while also catching fire from beyond the arc. UConn is 15-0 when it either shoots over 54.5% on 2-point attempts or limits its opponent to under 34% from 3-point range, with an average margin of +16.9 points. That margin goes up to +23.3 when the Huskies hit both marks. However, UConn is only 1-3 when it both struggles inside the arc and allows 3s — but, obviously, that doesn’t happen very often.
As for Stetson, it’s been all about the 3-point line this season. The Hatters rank in the top 100 for both 3-point attempt rate and 3-point percentage. They are 13-3 this season when shooting over 37.5% from 3-point range. On the downside, Stetson ranks just 267th in 2-point percentage defense as part of the No. 342 overall adjusted defense in the country. That likely poses a problem against UConn.
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Northwestern
Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four last season and enters this year’s field ranked tops in the country in minutes continuity. While the Owls’ regular season didn’t quite go as planned with a preseason top-10 ranking, they are still very dangerous in the postseason. A big key for FAU this season has been finishing at the rim. The Owls rank 19th nationally in the percentage of shots that get blocked, and they are 17-1 when opponents get three or fewer blocks. Conversely, FAU is just 8-7 when defenses get four or more.
FAU is 13-2 against teams ranked below 160th in block rate, as opposed to 12-6 against teams rated higher. Coming into this matchup, Northwestern ranks 148th.
Northwestern, on the other hand, needs contributions from its secondary scorers. Boo Buie will get his buckets, but what about those around him? Northwestern is 13-3 when Brooks Barnhizer scores 14 or more, and 8-1 when Ryan Langborg scores 17 or more. The Wildcats also struggle against teams who force turnovers. They went 11-2 in the regular season against defenses ranked in the bottom 260 in turnover rate, with the only losses being to Purdue and Illinois. Northwestern was 10-9 otherwise, including its home loss to Chicago State back in December.
For reference, FAU ranks 216th in defensive turnover rate forced.
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