Every NCAA Tournament game provides a reason to watch, but some matchups are more intriguing than others. Let’s dig in.
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is just four games deep, and we have already seen three close games. We;ve had overtime, a double-digit comeback and a controversial shot-clock error. Thursday and Friday of the First Round, however, is the best time of year for college basketball. Now that we have a full 32-game slate, it is time to plan what games to focus on.
With as many as four games being played simultaneously, it can be difficult to know which games to put on the TV. Cut through the madness with our intrigue rankings for all 32 first-round matchups.
Remember, no game in the NCAA Tournament is bad — but some are definitely better than others.
More tournament coverage:
—March Madness: The only 6 championship contenders | 5 Cinderellas to watch
—Stat Pack: Analyzing statistical trends for all 32 first-round matchups
—Region Previews: South | Midwest | West | East
1 — No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Colorado State (Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
This game may be a 7-vs.-11 game, but it features the closest matchup on KenPom in the first round. With Texas’ adjusted efficiency margin at +18.18 (26th) and Colorado State’s at +18.14 (27th), you will not find more of a coin flip than this one. It also features one of the elite guard matchups of the round between CSU’s Isaiah Stevens and Texas’ Max Abmas. The Rams are coming off a huge blowout over Virginia and probably feel like they still have something to prove after they fell to the First Four in what many perceived as a slight against the Mountain West.
2 — No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Texas A&M (Friday, 6:50 p.m., TNT)
Another game featuring an elite guard matchup, this game could be decided by who wins the battle between Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV and Nebraska’s Keisei Tominaga. Offensively, the two teams couldn’t be more different. Texas A&M thrives off second-chance opportunities, while Nebraska does not attack the offensive boards. However, the Cornhuskers shoot a much better percentage on first chances, especially from deep. Both squads are among the most experienced in the sport, and this game is bound to be a back-and-forth affair.
3 — No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs No. 9 Northwestern (Friday, 12:15 p.m., CBS)
Last year’s Final Four run for FAU started with them playing in the 8-vs.-9 game. They find themselves in the same position now, albeit under different circumstances. This year can only be described as a minor disappointment for the Owls, who opened up the season as a top-10 team and the AAC favorite. Their first major hurdle is Boo Buie and the Northwestern Wildcats, who have shown they can play with anyone. Stopping Buie has been a task that very few teams have accomplished, and he is one of the few players in the tournament who could spark a magical run all by himself.
4 — No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake (Thursday, 10:05 p.m., truTV)
In what looks to be the best of the 7-vs.-10 matchups, this one features a huge frontcourt matchup between Washington State’s Isaac Jones and Drake’s Tucker DeVries. Last season, DeVries was held in check by a Miami team he had the theoretical mismatch over. This year, he will not have nearly the same advantage on paper. Meanwhile, Washington State earned its 7-seed largely on the back of two wins over Arizona. Its defense should hold Drake to one shot one most possessions, putting extra pressure on DeVries & Co. to find the best shots.
5 — No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico (Friday, 3:10 p.m., truTV)
There are not many circumstances when an 11-seed is the analytical favorite over the 6, but here we are. New Mexico has been plagued with up-and-down play, but its backcourt of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. is one of the most explosive in the country. Clemson, on the other hand, will have the advantage in the frontcourt with PJ Hall. The 6-10 center could have a field day against a Lobos team that doesn’t like taking jumpers.
6 — No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Colorado (Friday, 4:15 p.m., TNT)
This matchup features two top-30 KenPom offenses with a ton of size. Florida will be without 7-1 center Micah Handlogten, which opens up the door for Colorado to continue its momentum from their First Four victory. The Gators took some time to gel — only two players logged significant minutes in Gainesville last season — but they are now firing on all cylinders. Florida’s backcourt can outscore Colorado even if the Buffaloes are getting easier looks at the rim.
7 — No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU (Friday, 9:55 p.m., TBS)
It is crazy to think that the champions of the Mountain West, a conference that earned six bids, is stuck as an 8-seed. However, Utah State lacked the nonconference schedule and metrics that the committee wanted in their higher seeds. The Aggies do, however, have the best player on the floor in this game: Great Osobor. The Montana State transfer is playing in his third NCAA Tournament and looked like he belonged in the first two despite suffering first-round losses. TCU has the advantage in the backcourt, however, and the presence of Jameer Nelson Jr. will create a fun game of back-and-forth play.
8 — No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State (Thursday, 12:15 p.m., CBS)
Michigan State is the primary beneficiary of the committee’s focus on metrics and scheduling. The Spartans, pegged by many as a bubble team, were safely in the field behind top-25 metrics and a top-10 strength of schedule. They will face a Mississippi State team that, like Washington State, earned its seed largely due to two wins over a 2-seed (Tennessee). The matchup between Miss State freshman Josh Hubbard and Michigan State seniors AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker could be the determining factor.
9 — No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese State (Thursday, 7:25 p.m., CBS)
Perhaps the favorite 12-over-5 upset pick among college basketball analysts, McNeese and Gonzaga should be a fun affair. After logging just five minutes and zero points in TCU’s NCAA Tournament loss to Gonzaga last year, McNeese’s Shahada Wells has been one of the best mid-major players in the country this season. It will be difficult for Gonzaga to stop Wells, but perhaps more difficult for McNeese to stop center Graham Ike. The Zags’ big man was a serious WCC Player of the Year candidate after logging seven straight 20-point games to end the regular season. If this game is won on the perimeter, McNeese has a shot. If Gonzaga can make sure it is played in the paint, the Bulldogs should control it from start to finish.
10 — No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison (Friday, 9:40 p.m., CBS)
Another popular 12-seed upset pick, James Madison is no stranger to Big Ten teams. In their season opener, the Dukes beat Michigan State in East Lansing. There are two reasons folks are picking JMU: The Dukes have both the nation’s best record and the longest active win streak, and the Badgers are just 6-9 since the start of February, even after their Big Ten tournament run. JMU’s Terrence Edwards may be the best player on the floor in this game. Unless Wisconsin can carry its late momentum into this matchup, the Dukes could go dancing further into March.
11 — No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon (Friday, 10:05 p.m., truTV)
Saint Mary’s accomplished what seemed impossible just a few years ago: a sweep of the WCC regular-season and tournament championships, while also keeping Gonzaga out of the WCC individual awards for the first time since 1993. The Gaels and WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis will take on the Grand Canyon Lopes, led by journeyman wing Tyon Grant-Foster. Between Grant-Foster, Jovan Blacksher and Ray Harrison, the Lopes are the more athletic team — and it may not be close. Saint Mary’s, however, is a well-oiled machine, and it will take more than athleticism for GCU to pull the upset.
12 — No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada (Thursday, 4:30 p.m., TBS)
Here we have another close matchup featuring a Mountain West team, as Dayton and Nevada rank 33rd and 34th respectively on KenPom. The Flyers have the best player on the floor in DaRon Holmes II, a 6-10 center who can do pretty much everything. But the Wolf Pack could have the next three best players in Kenan Blackshear, Jarod Lucas and Tre Coleman. The issue for Nevada will be finding a way to slow down Holmes. He is elite at scoring inside and stretching the floor, and he’s a willing passer when doubled. On the other end, he blocks shots at a high rate and vacuums in defensive rebounds. If Nevada can deny Holmes the ball, the Wolf Pack should help the Mountain West’s quest for vindication.
13 — No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford (Thursday, 9:55 p.m., TBS)
Samford was already a popular 13-seed upset pick given Kansas’ lack of depth leading to the worst season Bill Self has had in Lawrence. With the official loss of Kevin McCullar for the tournament, that pick will only become more popular in the final hours of bracket season. Kansas still has Hunter Dickinson returning, which may have been more important than McCullar’s potential return, given the presence of Achor Achor for Samford. Kansas could still win this one by a lot, but if Achor can get Dickinson and others into foul trouble, the playing field levels tremendously.
14 — No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon (Thursday, 4 p.m., TNT)
This game may be boring to some, but it has some storylines that should provide enough intrigue, especially given how competitive it projects to be. Both teams take their time offensively, and neither is likely to run up the scoreboard. That pace should allow the game to stay within a few possessions for the full 40 minutes. Add in the Jermaine Couisnard revenge game factor — the Duck guard played three seasons for the Gamecocks — and it wouldn’t be shocking to have this game defined more by an individual performance than the final score.
15 — No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 North Carolina State (Thursday, 9:40 p.m., CBS)
It is always fun to watch a team go on a long run to win a conference tournament title in an auto-bid or bust situation. However, oftentimes the hangover is awful. NC State won five straight games, including three over NCAA Tournament teams, to take home the ACC title. The Wolfpack’s reward is a date with a Texas Tech team that finished third in the country’s toughest conference. DJ Burns had a massive individual run through the ACC Tournament and must keep it up for the Wolfpack to have a shot. Otherwise, this could be one of the biggest duds of the round.
16 — No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 College of Charleston (Friday, 7:35 p.m., truTV)
Alabama could have been one of the best teams in the country again, but its total lack of defense led to a 2-4 record to close out the season. Charleston has a top-60 KenPom offense, rebounds at a high rate, and should be able to score well in this one. Alabama has only lost one game when giving up fewer than 85 points, so that is the score to target. Even if Charleston doesn’t pull the upset, this game could have the highest scoring total of the first-round matchups.
17 — No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Duquesne (Thursday, 12:40 p.m., truTV)
BYU was a 5-seed on the committee’s true seed list but was moved to the 6 line to avoid any potential Sunday games. This isn’t the end of the world, however, as the Cougars drew the weakest 11-seed in Duquesne. The Dukes earned an automatic bid by upsetting VCU in the A-10 Tournament title game, and the committee seemingly gave them an 11-seed based on VCU’s resume. In reality, Duquesne ranks lower on KenPom than three of the four 12-seeds. In all likelihood, BYU got an easier matchup on paper than they would have if they kept the 5-seed.
18 — No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB (Friday, 1:45 p.m., TNT)
UAB is the only 12-seed ranked worse than Duquesne on KenPom, and they will take on the lowest-ranked 5-seed. Neither of these teams shoots the ball particularly well, and both rely on the offensive boards to get second chances. The issue for the Blazers is that San Diego State likely has the three of the four best players on the floor, including All-Mountain West center Jaedon LeDee. UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg is an elite rebounder though, and should give LeDee a huge test.
19 — No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oakland (Thursday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
As is the case with Alabama vs. Charleston, even potential blowouts can be incredibly exciting when defense is optional. Kentucky’s D has been hit-or-miss (mostly miss) the entire season, and that should help Greg Kampe’s Oakland Grizzlies score at a high enough rate to avoid an embarrassing blowout. This game also has Reed Sheppard playing in it, and any opportunity to watch the best pure scorer in college basketball is appreciated.
20 — No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Morehead State (Thursday, 3:10 p.m., truTV)
Illinois is back! The Illini suffered a lull in the middle of the season and beat just two tournament teams over their final 16 regular season games, but their run to the Big Ten tournament title showcased why they have been a Top 10 team for most of the season. They have an elite scorer in Terrance Shannon who can go for 30 points any night. Morehead State’s Riley Minix could be a problem at the 4, but Illinois just has too much firepower to expect a hug chance at an upset.
21 — No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale (Friday, 4:15 p.m., TNT)
Auburn may have been the only team whose metrics were not able to save their seeding. Per KenPom, the Tigers are a top-five team with a top-five defense and a top-10 offense. However, they had just five wins over the field before their SEC Tournament run. Auburn also failed to record a single nonconference win in Quadrant 1, which the committee chair claims was a big part of their decision-making. The Tigers face a relatively strong 13-seed in Yale, which played competitive first halves against both Gonzaga and Kansas this season. If you believe in the analytics, however, Auburn shouldn’t have much issue here.
22 — No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont (Friday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
Despite its 4-seed status, Duke’s season feels like something of a disappointment. The Blue Devils lost to the only top-10 KenPom team they faced in nonconference play, were swept by North Carolina, and went winless in the ACC Tournament. Despite that, Duke finds itself with a protected seed and a clear path to the second weekend. Vermont is far from a warmup, though. The Catamounts boast a good defense and an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. Still, Duke will likely use this game to build momentum its young players can take into the coming rounds.
23 — No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron (Thursday, 1:30 p.m., TNT)
This game will feature a lot of 3s. That’s pretty much a guarantee. But the rate at which each team makes those shots will determine who moves on to the next round. Scratch that — the rate at which Akron makes its 3s will determine who moves on. The Zips have made over 33.3 percent of their deep shots in exactly half of their games, and their frontcourt doesn’t have the size to compete with Ryan Kalkbrenner if the shots aren’t falling. Creighton is also susceptible to shooting lulls, but the presence of Kalkbrenner should help them survive a poor night.
24 — No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate (Friday, 12:40 p.m., truTV)
This game, like most of Baylor’s season, just feels like a ho-hum affair. Baylor is a great team with a strong backcourt and one of the best freshman bigs in the country. They finished third in the Big 12 and played a tougher nonconference schedule than most of their league foes. In the stacked Big 12, other teams have taken the spotlight as surprises (Iowa State and BYU) or disappointments (Kansas), while Baylor has gone largely under the radar. While Colgate should put up a good fight, Scott Drew is one of the best coaches in the country, and Baylor likely has too much talent and consistency to lose this game.
25 — No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Long Beach State (Thursday, 2 p.m., TBS)
This game has a lot of different things going for it: a fired coach continuing to lead his team, a 2-seed looking to exorcise the demons from last March, and two coaches from the same tree coaching against each other. Dan Monson’s Beach came into the season looking like a potential Cinderella, and while their season hasn’t gone as planned, they are in prime position to pull a huge upset. The Wildcats have one of the highest ceilings in the country, but their struggles with bad teams throughout the season has left the door open for a second-straight first-round upset to a 15-seed.
26 — No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Grambling State (Friday, 7:25 p.m., TBS)
Like Arizona, Purdue is also dealing with the doubt created by their recent losses as a top seed. This is not the same team that lost to Fairleigh Dickinson last season, but until they can make a run, the Boilermakers will continue to deal with the doubters. Grambling State doesn’t match up well with Purdue, but the Tigers have a 6-11 center in Jonathan Aku to try to slow Zach Edey down. Grambling is 18-4 since Jan. 1 and played one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the nation. They will be ready to play Purdue, even if they are vastly overmatched.
27 — No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky (Friday, 2 p.m., TBS)
If Tyler Kolek is at full strength, this game probably isn’t close. If not, it opens a window — a small window — for Western Kentucky to give the Golden Eagles a first-round scare. Marquette is not a good rebounding team, while Western Kentucky is above average and has four players ranking in the top 500 in offensive or defensive rebound percentage. Kolek would solidify the Golden Eagles’ already huge mismatch in the backcourt. However, if Western Kentucky can take advantage of a hobbled playmaker and force bad shots, they could keep this one close in a fast-paced game.
28 — No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State (Thursday, 7:35 p.m., truTV)
Iowa State made a late push at seizing the final 1-seed, but the committee instead handed the Cyclones the final 2-seed as part of its crackdown on weak nonconference scheduling. ISU will take on a South Dakota State team that is elite at making shots and poor at preventing them. TJ Otzelberger — who coached at SD State from 2017 to 2019 — has this Cyclones team looking like it could make a run to the Final Four. The Jackrabbits likely can’t get enough stops to spoil that run.
29 — No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (Thursday, 9:20 p.m., TNT)
This game features one of the tournament’s worst offenses against the Volunteers’ top-three KenPom defense. In the past, Tennessee’s anemic offense would help make games like this closer, but the addition of first-team All-American Dalton Knecht has invigorated the Vols’ scoring attack. The Volunteers should handle business relatively easily, and those looking for a 15-over-2 upset should probably look elsewhere.
30 — No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson (Friday, 2:45 pm., CBS)
It may be surprising to hear, but Connecticut does not play much faster than Houston — their average length of possession is just 0.3 seconds shorter — despite averaging nearly eight more points per game. What saves this matchup, if anything, is the shot-making ability of both teams. UConn ranks sixth in effective field goal percentage, while Stetson ranks 53rd. This will likely be a blowout, but it should at least be an entertaining blowout.
31 — No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Longwood (Friday, 9:20 p.m., TNT)
Houston was rewarded for its No. 2 overall seed with the only 16-seed that boasts a positive KenPom efficiency margin. Will that be enough for the Lancers to avoid a blowout? No, likely not. And unlike the aforementioned UConn-Stetson game, both Houston and Longwood are below-average shot-making teams. A blowout game, played at a slow tempo, with two poor shooting teams? This game would be the worst on paper, if not for…
32 — No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Wagner (Thursday, 2:45 p.m., CBS)
…this one. Wagner got hot in the NEC Tournament and First Four to set up one of the worst first-round games in recent memory. The Seahawks have been atrocious offensively for most of the season, and a lot of their defensive success has come from holding opponents to low 3-point and free-throw percentages. UNC boasts an elite defense and an above-average offense, with mismatches all over the floor. It was essentially the same scouting report for Purdue and Fairleigh Dickinson last year — but unlike the Boilermakers, North Carolina has experience at the guard position.