Tournament Index: March Madness 2022 predictions, Cinderella picks

Methodology	Historical team ratings
Upset Alerts	Cinderella Index

Tournament Index’s Upset Alert

Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.

An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.

Seed Matchup	Average Win Probability	“Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold
1 vs. 16	94.6%	92.9%
2 vs. 15	90.9%	87.4%
3 vs. 14	84.1%	78.8%
4 vs. 13	81.9%	75.2%
5 vs. 12	70.3%	60.8%
6 vs. 11	61.3%	48.6%

The table below includes the full list of first-round Tournament Index “Upset Alerts” since 2013.

Tournament Index’s “Upset Alerts” — 2013-21

Year		Team (seed)		Team (seed)	Win Probability	Result	Tournament Result	Underperformed?
2021		Purdue (4)		North Texas (13)	71.8%	L, 78-69 (OT)	First round	Yes
2021		Arkansas (3)		Colgate (14)	76.6%	W, 85-68	Elite Eight	No
2019		Wisconsin (5)		Oregon (12)	54.0%	L, 72-54	First round	Yes
2019		Marquette (5)		Murray State (12)	53.9%	L, 83-64	First round	Yes
2019		Kansas State (4)		UC Irvine (13)	72.9%	L, 70-64	First round	Yes
2018		Xavier (1)		Texas Southern (16)	91.4%	W, 102-83	Second round	Yes
2018		Kansas (1)		Penn (16)	90.0%	W, 76-60	Final Four	No
2018		Clemson (5)		New Mexico State (12)	58.9%	W, 79-68	Sweet 16	No
2017		Minnesota (5)		Middle Tennessee (12)	53.1%	L, 81-72	First round	Yes
2017		Maryland (6)		Xavier (11)	39.3%	L, 76-65	First round	Yes
2016		Xavier (2)		Weber State (15)	80.3%	W, 71-53	Second round	Yes
2016		West Virginia (3)		Stephen F. Austin (14)	74.2%	L, 70-56	First round	Yes
2016		Seton Hall (6)		Gonzaga (11)	33.7%	L, 68-52	First round	Yes
2016		Oregon (1)		Holy Cross (16)	91.8%	W, 91-52	Elite Eight	Yes
2015		Maryland (4)		Valparaiso (13)	63.2%	W, 65-62	Second round	Yes
2015		Kansas (2)		New Mexico State (15)	86.8%	W, 75-56	Second round	Yes
2015		Butler (6)		Texas (11)	33.8%	W, 56-48	Second round	No
2015		Baylor (3)		Georgia State (14)	75.1%	L, 57-56	First round	Yes
2014		Wisconsin (2)		American (15)	83.1%	W, 75-35	Final Four	No
2014		Wichita State (1)		Cal Poly (16)	92.0%	W, 64-37	Second round	Yes
2014		Virginia (1)		Coastal Carolina (16)	92.4%	W, 70-59	Sweet 16	Yes
2014		San Diego State (4)		New Mexico State (13)	71.5%	W, 73-69 (OT)	Sweet 16	No
2014		Saint Louis (5)		NC State (12)	59.8%	W, 83-80 (OT)	Second round	No
2014		UMass (6)		Tennessee (11)	31.3%	L, 86-67	First round	Yes
2014		Iowa State (3)		NC Central (14)	76.7%	W, 93-75	Sweet 16	Yes
2014		Cincinnati (5)		Harvard (12)	58.9%	L, 61-57	First round	Yes
2013		VCU (5)		Akron (12)	59.4%	W, 88-42	Second round	No
2013		UCLA (6)		Minnesota (11)	45.2%	L, 83-63	First round	Yes
2013		Saint Louis (4)		New Mexico State (13)	73.6%	W, 64-44	Second round	Yes
2013		Oklahoma State (5)		Oregon (12)	59.2%	L, 68-55	First round	Yes
2013		Miami FL (2)		Pacific (15)	87.2%	W, 78-49	Sweet 16	Yes
2013		Marquette (3)		Davidson (14)	73.1%	W, 59-58	Elite Eight	No
2013		Kansas State (4)		La Salle (13)	70.3%	L, 63-61	First round	Yes
2013		Georgetown (2)		Florida Gulf Coast (15)	85.8%	L, 78-68	First round	Yes

Since 2013, a total of 34 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.

Seeds 1-3

Stat	On “Upset Alert”	Not on “Upset Alert”
Avg. wins per tournament	1.80	2.53
Reached second round	80.0%	91.4%
Reached Sweet 16	53.3%	66.7%

Seeds 4-6

Stat	On “Upset Alert”	Not on “Upset Alert”
Avg. wins per tournament	0.47	1.25
Reached second round	36.8%	68.8%
Reached Sweet 16	10.5%	40.2%

Below is a look at how teams at each seed line are expected to perform against one another, expressed in win probability.

Tournament Index’s Seed vs. Seed Win Probability Chart