Tournament Index’s Upset Alert
Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.
An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.
Seed Matchup | Average Win Probability | “Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold |
---|---|---|
1 vs. 16 | 94.6% | 92.9% |
2 vs. 15 | 90.9% | 87.4% |
3 vs. 14 | 84.1% | 78.8% |
4 vs. 13 | 81.9% | 75.2% |
5 vs. 12 | 70.3% | 60.8% |
6 vs. 11 | 61.3% | 48.6% |
The table below includes the full list of first-round Tournament Index “Upset Alerts” since 2013.
Tournament Index’s “Upset Alerts” — 2013-21
Year | Team (seed) | Team (seed) | Win Probability | Result | Tournament Result | Underperformed? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | ![]() | Purdue (4) | ![]() | North Texas (13) | 71.8% | L, 78-69 (OT) | First round | Yes |
2021 | ![]() | Arkansas (3) | ![]() | Colgate (14) | 76.6% | W, 85-68 | Elite Eight | No |
2019 | ![]() | Wisconsin (5) | ![]() | Oregon (12) | 54.0% | L, 72-54 | First round | Yes |
2019 | ![]() | Marquette (5) | ![]() | Murray State (12) | 53.9% | L, 83-64 | First round | Yes |
2019 | ![]() | Kansas State (4) | ![]() | UC Irvine (13) | 72.9% | L, 70-64 | First round | Yes |
2018 | ![]() | Xavier (1) | ![]() | Texas Southern (16) | 91.4% | W, 102-83 | Second round | Yes |
2018 | ![]() | Kansas (1) | ![]() | Penn (16) | 90.0% | W, 76-60 | Final Four | No |
2018 | ![]() | Clemson (5) | ![]() | New Mexico State (12) | 58.9% | W, 79-68 | Sweet 16 | No |
2017 | ![]() | Minnesota (5) | ![]() | Middle Tennessee (12) | 53.1% | L, 81-72 | First round | Yes |
2017 | ![]() | Maryland (6) | ![]() | Xavier (11) | 39.3% | L, 76-65 | First round | Yes |
2016 | ![]() | Xavier (2) | ![]() | Weber State (15) | 80.3% | W, 71-53 | Second round | Yes |
2016 | ![]() | West Virginia (3) | ![]() | Stephen F. Austin (14) | 74.2% | L, 70-56 | First round | Yes |
2016 | ![]() | Seton Hall (6) | ![]() | Gonzaga (11) | 33.7% | L, 68-52 | First round | Yes |
2016 | ![]() | Oregon (1) | ![]() | Holy Cross (16) | 91.8% | W, 91-52 | Elite Eight | Yes |
2015 | ![]() | Maryland (4) | ![]() | Valparaiso (13) | 63.2% | W, 65-62 | Second round | Yes |
2015 | ![]() | Kansas (2) | ![]() | New Mexico State (15) | 86.8% | W, 75-56 | Second round | Yes |
2015 | ![]() | Butler (6) | ![]() | Texas (11) | 33.8% | W, 56-48 | Second round | No |
2015 | ![]() | Baylor (3) | ![]() | Georgia State (14) | 75.1% | L, 57-56 | First round | Yes |
2014 | ![]() | Wisconsin (2) | ![]() | American (15) | 83.1% | W, 75-35 | Final Four | No |
2014 | ![]() | Wichita State (1) | ![]() | Cal Poly (16) | 92.0% | W, 64-37 | Second round | Yes |
2014 | ![]() | Virginia (1) | ![]() | Coastal Carolina (16) | 92.4% | W, 70-59 | Sweet 16 | Yes |
2014 | ![]() | San Diego State (4) | ![]() | New Mexico State (13) | 71.5% | W, 73-69 (OT) | Sweet 16 | No |
2014 | ![]() | Saint Louis (5) | ![]() | NC State (12) | 59.8% | W, 83-80 (OT) | Second round | No |
2014 | ![]() | UMass (6) | ![]() | Tennessee (11) | 31.3% | L, 86-67 | First round | Yes |
2014 | ![]() | Iowa State (3) | ![]() | NC Central (14) | 76.7% | W, 93-75 | Sweet 16 | Yes |
2014 | ![]() | Cincinnati (5) | ![]() | Harvard (12) | 58.9% | L, 61-57 | First round | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | VCU (5) | ![]() | Akron (12) | 59.4% | W, 88-42 | Second round | No |
2013 | ![]() | UCLA (6) | ![]() | Minnesota (11) | 45.2% | L, 83-63 | First round | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | Saint Louis (4) | ![]() | New Mexico State (13) | 73.6% | W, 64-44 | Second round | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | Oklahoma State (5) | ![]() | Oregon (12) | 59.2% | L, 68-55 | First round | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | Miami FL (2) | ![]() | Pacific (15) | 87.2% | W, 78-49 | Sweet 16 | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | Marquette (3) | ![]() | Davidson (14) | 73.1% | W, 59-58 | Elite Eight | No |
2013 | ![]() | Kansas State (4) | ![]() | La Salle (13) | 70.3% | L, 63-61 | First round | Yes |
2013 | ![]() | Georgetown (2) | ![]() | Florida Gulf Coast (15) | 85.8% | L, 78-68 | First round | Yes |
Since 2013, a total of 34 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.
Seeds 1-3
Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
---|---|---|
Avg. wins per tournament | 1.80 | 2.53 |
Reached second round | 80.0% | 91.4% |
Reached Sweet 16 | 53.3% | 66.7% |
Seeds 4-6
Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
---|---|---|
Avg. wins per tournament | 0.47 | 1.25 |
Reached second round | 36.8% | 68.8% |
Reached Sweet 16 | 10.5% | 40.2% |
Below is a look at how teams at each seed line are expected to perform against one another, expressed in win probability.
Tournament Index’s Seed vs. Seed Win Probability Chart

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