Tournament Index: March Madness 2022 predictions, Cinderella picks

By Eli Boettger on January 24, 2022

Methodology	Historical team ratings
Upset Alerts	Cinderella Index

Tournament Index’s Upset Alert

Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.

An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.

Seed Matchup	Average Win Probability	“Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold
1 vs. 16	94.6%	92.9%
2 vs. 15	90.9%	87.4%
3 vs. 14	84.1%	78.8%
4 vs. 13	81.9%	75.2%
5 vs. 12	70.3%	60.8%
6 vs. 11	61.3%	48.6%

Ex.: If a 1-seed’s first-round win probability is lower than 92.9%, it will be marked as an “Upset Alert.”

The table below includes the full list of first-round Tournament Index “Upset Alerts” since 2013.

Tournament Index’s “Upset Alerts” — 2013-21

Year	Team (seed)	Team (seed)	Win Probability	Result	Tournament Result	Underperformed?
2021	Purdue (4)	North Texas (13)	71.8%	L, 78-69 (OT)	First round	Yes
2021	Arkansas (3)	Colgate (14)	76.6%	W, 85-68	Elite Eight	No
2019	Wisconsin (5)	Oregon (12)	54.0%	L, 72-54	First round	Yes
2019	Marquette (5)	Murray State (12)	53.9%	L, 83-64	First round	Yes
2019	Kansas State (4)	UC Irvine (13)	72.9%	L, 70-64	First round	Yes
2018	Xavier (1)	Texas Southern (16)	91.4%	W, 102-83	Second round	Yes
2018	Kansas (1)	Penn (16)	90.0%	W, 76-60	Final Four	No
2018	Clemson (5)	New Mexico State (12)	58.9%	W, 79-68	Sweet 16	No
2017	Minnesota (5)	Middle Tennessee (12)	53.1%	L, 81-72	First round	Yes
2017	Maryland (6)	Xavier (11)	39.3%	L, 76-65	First round	Yes
2016	Xavier (2)	Weber State (15)	80.3%	W, 71-53	Second round	Yes
2016	West Virginia (3)	Stephen F. Austin (14)	74.2%	L, 70-56	First round	Yes
2016	Seton Hall (6)	Gonzaga (11)	33.7%	L, 68-52	First round	Yes
2016	Oregon (1)	Holy Cross (16)	91.8%	W, 91-52	Elite Eight	Yes
2015	Maryland (4)	Valparaiso (13)	63.2%	W, 65-62	Second round	Yes
2015	Kansas (2)	New Mexico State (15)	86.8%	W, 75-56	Second round	Yes
2015	Butler (6)	Texas (11)	33.8%	W, 56-48	Second round	No
2015	Baylor (3)	Georgia State (14)	75.1%	L, 57-56	First round	Yes
2014	Wisconsin (2)	American (15)	83.1%	W, 75-35	Final Four	No
2014	Wichita State (1)	Cal Poly (16)	92.0%	W, 64-37	Second round	Yes
2014	Virginia (1)	Coastal Carolina (16)	92.4%	W, 70-59	Sweet 16	Yes
2014	San Diego State (4)	New Mexico State (13)	71.5%	W, 73-69 (OT)	Sweet 16	No
2014	Saint Louis (5)	NC State (12)	59.8%	W, 83-80 (OT)	Second round	No
2014	UMass (6)	Tennessee (11)	31.3%	L, 86-67	First round	Yes
2014	Iowa State (3)	NC Central (14)	76.7%	W, 93-75	Sweet 16	Yes
2014	Cincinnati (5)	Harvard (12)	58.9%	L, 61-57	First round	Yes
2013	VCU (5)	Akron (12)	59.4%	W, 88-42	Second round	No
2013	UCLA (6)	Minnesota (11)	45.2%	L, 83-63	First round	Yes
2013	Saint Louis (4)	New Mexico State (13)	73.6%	W, 64-44	Second round	Yes
2013	Oklahoma State (5)	Oregon (12)	59.2%	L, 68-55	First round	Yes
2013	Miami FL (2)	Pacific (15)	87.2%	W, 78-49	Sweet 16	Yes
2013	Marquette (3)	Davidson (14)	73.1%	W, 59-58	Elite Eight	No
2013	Kansas State (4)	La Salle (13)	70.3%	L, 63-61	First round	Yes
2013	Georgetown (2)	Florida Gulf Coast (15)	85.8%	L, 78-68	First round	Yes

Since 2013, a total of 34 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.